Some over/under props for UofL next season
UofL's coaches, players, and fans probably hope next season is quite a bit different from this one. In that vein, here are some key numbers to watch.
Sportsbooks will frequently post projections for total wins for a team’s upcoming season, and bettors can wager on whether the team will go over or under that projection. Cardinal fans who live in Indiana or Tennessee (or who cross state lines for entertainment purposes) might put a wager down on Louisville’s total next season. But the game of basketball is a complicated thing, and within the wins and losses are a huge number of other things that happen. Here at Hoops Insight, we obsess over all those other little things, and I’ve picked a few that are worth monitoring for this season. Let’s take a look at some totals I’ve set, and why they might go over or under next season for Louisville.
The Ross McMains Effect
Louisville’s new assistant brings an international background and an air of mystery, and Cardinal fans are hoping he’ll have them shouting “yeah, baby” like Austin Powers. In my last article I wrote about some of the impacts he may have next season, so let’s set some benchmarks.
#1: Adjusted tempo rank per Ken Pom, over/under 20th
The case for the over: UofL was 300th last season and has not ranked lower than 199th under Chris Mack. At Xavier, Mack’s lowest tempo rank was 32nd, and he only had two other seasons in the top 100. Chris Mack may say he wants to play fast, but he doesn’t have a track record of being one of the fastest teams in the country.
The case for the under: McMains’ New Zealand team put up 82 possessions per 40 minutes in the 2019 FIBA World Cup, which would have been #1 in D-1 last season by a hefty margin. Nate Oats at Alabama has shown that a new hire in a major conference can dramatically increase the tempo, from sub-100 rnaks to top-20 ranks in 1 season.
My prediction: Under. McMains’ offensive principles pratically guarantee faster pace, and the Cards should have several wings and bigs who can rebound and push the pace themselves.
#2: Effective FG% rank per Ken Pom, over/under 30th
The case for the over: Last season, 6 Power 6 teams finished in the top 30 (Baylor, Illinois, Virginia, Creighton, Iowa, Michigan). They either had a track record of being elite at eFG% (Virginia, Creighton) or an All-American (Baylor, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan). Louisville doesn’t have either, as they were 271st last season.
The case for the under: McMains’ offensive philosophy emphasizes shots in the paint or from three. If UofL hit the same percentage from three, midrange, and the paint, but distributed their attempts to take fewer midrange shots, they could have made the top 40 last season. For all his heroics, Carlik Jones was inefficient (43% eFG%). UofL was 53rd in 2019, and Chris Mack has coached 3 teams in the top 50.
My prediction: Over, but not by much. Louisville will need time to figure out who can be their halfcourt threats and to adapt to a more efficient offensive system, but improved shot distribution can improve a whole lot by itself.
The impact of transfers
#3: Team 3pt FG%, over/under 37%
The case for the over: Louisville has 4 newcomers (El Ellis, Noah Locke, Matt Cross, Jarrod West) who have at least 1 season at their previous program where they hit 40% of their threes on meaningful volume. Jae’lyn Withers and JJ Traynor combined to hit 13-31 (42%) last season. Mack has had 4 teams hit over 37%, including 2019 Louisville.
The case for the under: Shooters need to get open, and it’s unclear who is going to be the dynamic playmaker who draws the defense’s attention. Louisville holdovers (and poor shooters) like Sam Williamson, Dre Davis, and Malik Williams may take a bigger role in the offense than the newcomers. It’s hard to hit 37% of threes as a team…even great offenses like Gonzaga, BYU, Ohio State, and West Virginia fell short of that mark last season.
My prediction: Over. Louisville will frequently have 3-4 very good outside shooters on the court at once and, given the obvious focus on bringing in shooters, should find ways to scheme them open.
#4: Percentage of field goal attempts from three, over/under 40%
The case for the over: 100 D-1 teams took more than 40% of their shots from three last season, up from 66 5 years ago. UofL took almost 44% of their shots from three in Mack’s first season. Locke, West, and Cross took over half of their shots from three in their D-1 career so far, and Ellis took over 40% of his from three in JuCo.
The case for the under: Mack’s first UofL team was the only one he’s coached that has taken more than 38% of their shots from three. The only two players from last season’s UofL team who took more 3’s than 2’s were Quinn Slazinski and Josh Nickelberry, and they transferred. The 4 leading returning scorers from last year (Withers, Williamson, Davis, Traynor) combined to take 32% of their shots from three.
My prediction: Under. Most of Louisville’s returnees are strong interior scorers, and the threat of shooters may actually open up driving lanes for players like Williamson and Withers.
Individual player stats
#5: Jae’lyn Withers points per game, over/under 15
The case for the over: Withers scored 15.6 points per 40 minutes last season depite being the 3rd or 4th option and taking less than 20% of UofL’s shots when on the court. With more playing time, a larger role in the offense, and freed from playing exclusively in the post he could blossom. Jordan Nwora made a sophomore leap to a 17ppg scorer under Mack.
The case for the under: If everyone is healthy, Louisville may play 10-11 players, keeping anyone from getting more than 28-30 minutes. With a surplus of wing players, Louisville may play undersized 4s like Williamson and Davis a lot. Withers fouled more often than any other Card in the main rotation last year, so he may be hampered by foul trouble too often to put up big point totals.
My prediction: Over. I have a feeling that Withers is going to be the star next season. Jeff Greer has often recounted stories of Wither's’ perimeter prowess during HS summer play, so he may be perfectly suited if unleashed as a 4.
#6 El Ellis minutes per game, over/under 30
The case for over: Except for the 2019-20 season, Chris Mack basically always plays his lead guards 30mpg or more. Last season Jones and Johnson averaged 35+ mpg each. The only other experienced point guard on the roster is Jarrod West, who has spent time at SG too and may play alongside Ellis.
The case for under: Mack has said he had to slow the tempo last season due to a lack of guard depth, so he likely is focused on developing guard depth to play faster this season. Louisville may still be looking to add one more backcourt piece via transfer, which would help keep Ellis from needing to play so many minutes. If Ellis plays over 30 minutes, some of the other guards/wings will end up playing less than 10 minutes, which could ruffle feathers.
My prediction: Over. 2019-20 was a backcourt disaster, and I think Mack wants Ellis to be his guy in the backcourt. The staff may experiment earlier in the season, but when conference play kicks in I think Ellis will have proven his lead guard chops far and above anyone else.
#7: JJ Traynor minutes per game, over/under 15
The case for over: Traynor played 13 mpg last season, and has reportedly added strength this offseason to better handle interior play. Traynor’s advanced stats (win shares per 40 minutes, box plus minus) were among the best on the team last season, usually a hallmark of someone who can handle a bigger role. Williams and Wheeler have been injury-prone, which could open a path to a bigger role for Traynor.
The case for the under: 4 returning frontcourt players (Withers, Williamson, Davis, Williams) played more minutes per game than Traynor, and Williams may be healthy all season. Roosevelt Wheeler may get most of the backup minutes at the 5, and UofL may choose to play small a lot by sliding a wing to the 4.
My prediction: Over. Between the injury risk for Williams/Wheeler, foul risk for Withers, and Traynor’s strong advanced stats impact, there are a lot of reasons he could play more this season. If Withers or Williamson turns pro, Traynor may be the main man in the frontcourt in 2022, so the coaching staff may want to lay the groundwork for that starting next season.
The Cards are going to need to establish some strengths on offense this season, and pace or 3 point shooting seem like a likely place given the offseason developments. The rotation and pecking order are also very unsettled, and I’m very intrigued to see how those things sort themselves out. You’ve seen my prediction above, leave yours in the comments and we’ll revisit during next season!
With so much off-season talk around the bigs and guards the wings, probably the deepest position, haven't been discussed a lot. What's your gut check on minutes for the 3s? And maybe even throw James in there despite talk off him playing the 2.