How will Ross McMains impact UofL's offense?
The newest coaching hire brings some innovative concepts that could reshape much of what Louisville does on offense
Ross McMains isn’t the kind of assistant coaching hire that’s going to help you win the press conference, or get inroads with key recruits, or energize the fanbase by having his name associated with your program. He’s never coached in college, and has one NBA season as a video coordinator. He comes from a background in the G-League and overseas, which is unusual for a major college hire to say the least. He’s a different kind of hire, one that you make when you have a specific skill in mind and you need someone who excels at it. And from all I can gather, Ross McMains is excellent at teaching the game of basketball, specifically useful and innovative offensive concepts. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I look at how some of these concepts might play out for the Cardinals next season.
A new vocabulary for Cards fans
A couple keywords that you’ll probably start hearing a lot more next season around the Louisville program are “bolt” and “dominoes”. These are just a couple of the concepts that McMains focuses on and specializes in teaching. He has a consulting service, Efficient Sauce, where he helps spread knowledge of these concepts. He also has spoken about his concepts on some great podcasts, including one I highly recommend on the Kaizen podcast.
I don’t think I can quite do his philosophy justice by explaining it very well, but at its core it asks players to create, identify, and attack weak spots in the defense. One of the first ways it does this is by weaponizing defensive rebounds to create transition opportunities, and having players sprint in wide lanes like Usain Bolt (hence “bolts”) providing the ballhandlers with space to attack. UofL fans will no doubt welcome a return to a more transition-oriented game!
In halfcourt offense, players are expected to space the floor similarly to create driving lanes for the primary ballhandler. The ballhandler is expected to get into the paint quickly, with the option to either score or kick to a perimeter teammate. The goal is to attract closeouts as the defense scrambles, which intiates ball movement to keep forcing rotations until there’s an open scoring opportunity. This is called “dominoes”, as the first action starts a chain reaction of defensive movement and recovery. The goal is to get open shots in the paint or at the three point line, which are the most efficient places to take field goals.
So, given these core ideas, how can we expect Louisville basketball to look on offense next season?
More pace, and a different shot profile
McMains has been an assistant coach with the New Zealand men’s national team for several years, and has left an imprint on their offensive style. The box scores and play by play from their games in the 2019 FIBA World Cup are available online, so I dug through them to see some statistical evidence of how his teams liked to play. I also was able to find game data from Melbourne United, where McMains was an assistant in the 2019-20 season. All of it combines to paint an interesting picture of what may be in store for the Cards.
First of all, his team clearly play with the pace you’d expect given the emphasis on transition. During the FIBA World Cup in 2019 New Zealand outscored their opponents in transition in every single game. They averaged over 82 possessions per game in 40 minutes of game time, the same as NCAA (but with 4 quarters instead of 2 halves). Last season Coppin State led D-1 with just under 77 possessions per game, and UofL clocked in at just 66. No D-1 team has put up 82 possessions per game since Savannah State in 2018, so UofL is likely to see a dramatic increase in pace next season. I don’t know that they will lead D-1 in tempo all of a sudden, but top 20 seems reasonable. For a similar comp, Alabama hadn’t ranked higher than 117th in a decade before jumping up to 4th in tempo when Nate Oats took over.
Second, McMains’ teams clearly hunt for quality shots. During the 2019 World Cup, New Zealand took 49% of their shots in the paint, 44% from three, and only 7% from midrange. During McMain’s lone season there, Melbourne United took 51% from the paint, 37% from deep, and only 11% from midrange. Granted, both FIBA and the Australian NBL use the midrange much less than college basketball, but McMains’s teams still took midrange shots much less than their opponents.
Last season Louisville took 40% of their shots in the paint, 30% from deep, and 30% from midrange. The Cards hit only 26% of these frequent midrange shots, which helped them post an effective Fg% of 47%, good for 271st nationally. If they’d hit the same percentage from each area but had a more efficient distribution (say, 50% from paint, 40% from three, 10% from midrange) the Cards would have had an eFG% of 54% and ranked 37th in the nation…and that’s with just 31% shooting from three! Better shot distribution should help the Cards tremendously.
There are a couple areas where McMains’ teams have actually lagged opponents. First is in assist rate, which is the ratio of assists to made field goals. In the FIBA World Cup, New Zealand posted a 65% assist rate, which would have been one of the highest in D-1 last season. However, their opponents were even higher at 68%. These numbers are inflated over D-1 for a simple reason: FIBA grants assists when a pass leads to made free throws. The NBL did not when McMains coached there, and his Melbourne United team posted an assist rate of 45%; this is on par with UofL’s rate last season which ranked 313th in D-1. Melbourne’s opponents posted an assist rate of 54%, which would have been close to top 100 in D-1. Despite the “dominoes” concept and the ball movement in McMains’ offense, players need to be able to create and finish shots on their own when the opportunity presents itself.
The frequent ball movement also lends itself to high turnover rates. During the 2019 FIBA World Cup, New Zealand committed turnovers on almost 17% of their possessions vs just 13% for their opponents. The turnovers are part of the cost of hunting the best scoring opportunities and, on balance, these philosophies lead to a very effective offense. New Zealand averaged 120.5 points per 100 possessions during the World Cup, on par with Gonzaga’s D-1 leading offense last season. New Zealand went 3-2 during the tournament despite being the 6th lowest ranked out of 32 teams, and pulled upsets over higher-ranked Montenegro and Turkey squads.
So, what should we expect for Louisville’s offense next season? My best guess, assuming they implement much of McMains’ principles, is that they:
Rank in the top 20 D-1 teams in tempo
Reduce their volume of midrange shots (2 pointers outside the paint) to less than 20% of total shots
Rank 250th or worse in % of made fields goals that are assisted
Rank outside the top 100 in offensive turnover rate
Which players might benefit the most from McMain’s offense?
Williamson and Withers seem like great fits
McMain’s offense will run well with players who can score individually when opportunities present themselves, can score off of other player’s actions, or can move the ball to create scoring opportunities for others. I’d expect it to favor players who can do some or all of the following:
Finish at the rim without assists
Score off catch and shoot
Score efficiently in isolation with low turnovers
Score efficiently in transition
Pass effectively out of isolation
So, which Cardinals on next year’s roster show promise in these areas?
First, I don’t have good data on how any of these apply to El Ellis or any of the freshmen…so we’ll exclude them for now. Matt Cross also has so little experience that we shouldn’t draw too many conclusions. Among projected rotation players next year, that leaves:
Returnees Sam Williamson, Dre Davis, Jae’lyn Withers, Malik Williams, and JJ Traynor
Newcomers Jarrod West and Noah Locke
I’d expect Samuell Williamson to find some success in a couple areas next season. First, he has been a very good finisher at the rim in halfcourt situations without relying on assists. Last season he was 3rd on the team in FG% at the rim in halfcourt offense at 60%, and 42% of his made baskets at the rim were assisted. Only Withers among returnees had a higher FG% at the rim, and he relied on assists for 64% of his makes. Williamson also was excellent in transition, scoring in the 84th percentile nationally. However, Williamson has had very little experience running isolation plays (only 13 in 2 years, per Synergy) and has scored poorly on them. Williamson also has struggled from deep; he hit just 9 of 36 threes last season (25%) and hit only 1 of 7 jumpers from 17 feet to the 3 point line, per Synergy. He clearly has good touch inside of 17 feet, hitting almost 52% of his jumpers there, but needs to extend his range and his ability to score or make plays off isolation to be effective. Williamson has done very well in the midrange, which McMains’ offense de-emphasizes, but this doesn’t concern me much for two reasons. First, Williamson is even better at the rim and should get more looks there. Second, Williamson shooting midrange shots is actually a pretty efficient play, assuming he continues hitting at the 51%+ clip he’s shown in his career.
Jae’lyn Withers should also have some real success. Synergy rated Withers in the 78th percentile of transition scorers, as he hit 69% of his shots there. He finished 63% of shots at the rim in halfcourt offense, the best among returnees. Withers also flashed potential as a shooter, going 13 for 28 on jump shots outside of 17 feet (including 8 for 21 from three); Synergy ranked Withers in the 85th percentile among all players on jump shots. He likely won’t be asked to create much as a playmaker, but Withers has shown flashes of skill in isolation as well. On 10 charted isolation scoring plays last season, Withers shot 4 for 7 with 2 shooting fouls drawn and just 1 turnover. Synergy rated him in the 92nd percentile as an isolation scorer, albeit on very low volume. Withers only had 9 assists all season, however, so it’s a complete mystery as to whether he can help make plays for others during the dominoes actions.
JJ Traynor and Malik Williams both have shown potential as spot up threats as well. Traynor ranked in the 93rd percentile on spot ups last season, hitting 7 of 16. Williams ranked in the 85th percentile in 2019-20, hitting 9 of 24. Neither player had a single turnover on spot up plays in these years, which is a nice bonus. Both players have shown the ability to finish in transition and at the rim in halfcourt, although they rely on assists to a high degree. I don’t know how effective either player will be at driving past a closing out defender, to be honest, or at making plays beyond catch and shoot.
I’m less optimistic about Dre Davis’ effectiveness in this offense, however. Last season Davis struggled on offense with a 44% effective FG% and 33 turnovers vs 22 assists. Per Synergy, the only play type where Davis rated above the 50th percentile nationally was on post ups, where he ranked in the 99th percentile. I don’t anticipate McMains’ offense involving a lot of post-ups for wings, however, so that may not be very valuable this season. Davis was a poor spot up shooter, struggled to finish at the rim in halfcourt offense, and did not make an impact as a ballhandler. He’s valuable defensively, but given the skills of other options of the wing I think there’s a real risk that Dre Davis struggles to carve out a consistent place in the rotation.
Jarrod West should be a solid complimentary piece in the offense. Synergy rated him in the 88th percentile of transition scorers last season. Despite standing just 5’11” West is used to finishing at the rim without asissts, as none of his 34 makes at the rim were assisted last season. West also has demonstrated skill as a spot up shooter, hitting 47% last season on those plays at ranking in the 94th percentile per Synergy. However, he has not demonstrated much playmaking or scoring in isolation situations. He was rated as Average by Synergy on those plays (48th percentile), and only attempted 19 all season. He did flash ability in the pick and roll, however per Synergy his most effective play was to take a jumper off a pick. When asked to drive into the lane he was less effective. West’s small stature may hamper him in this area.
Noah Locke is an interesting piece for McMains’ offense. He is an excellent outside shooter, hitting over 40% like clockwork while at Florida. However, Locke almost never got to the rim in transition or in halfcourt offense. He had very little experience as a ballhandler in isolation or pick and roll, and did not score effectively in these limited reps. However, he did have some success passing out to spot up shooters. He’ll need to show more ability attacking closeouts to really unlock Louisville’s offense, since he will get a lot of attention as a shooter. Closeouts on Locke could in fact be a common way for UofL to enter into the “dominoes” concept, so he’ll need to learn to be a passable trigger man for this action or Louisville’s offense could bog down.
I expect Sam Williamson and Jae’lyn Withers to step up and flourish in McMain’s offense. If Williamson emerges as a spot-up threat or Withers develops solid playmaking skills, the Cards could get VERY dangerous. I’d still like to see them add one more creator off the dribble, but the pickings are pretty slim in the transfer portal right now. The Cardinals have some nice complimentary pieces, and some potential stars in Ellis, Williamson, and Withers, but there will likely be some growing pains in a new offense with new roles. I think UofL fans will be pleasantly surprised by the impact of their new assistant coach, but should remain patient if everything doesn’t click right away.