What do we know about the Cards so far?
UofL has been tough to figure out, but there are some clear trends this season
Unless otherwise cited below, stats from this article can be found via my Stats Engine at https://hoopsinsight.shinyapps.io/HoopsInsight/.
Louisville’s men’s basketball season is all over the place. They have 3 quality wins so far (Maryland, Mississippi State, at NC State) and a hard fought loss at a good Michigan State team, but disappointing losses to Furman and Depaul..neither of whom is all that likely to make the NCAA Tournament. Whatever expectations were fostered in the offseason have been turned upside down. An offseason coaching staff shakeup promised to invigorate the offense with modern principles, but so far this has been Chris Mack’s best defensive team ever and 2nd worst offensive team. The headlining returnees so far have been almost invisible. Jae’lyn Withers and Samuell Williamson each average about 10 points and 8 rebounds per game last year and were expected to spearhead the Cards…and they are presently combining for 12 points and 10 rebounds per game as the 7th and 8th leading scorers on the team.
So forget what you thought you knew before the season…let’s start with a clean slate and look at what we know so far this season for Louisville.
The offensive style has changed, but results have yet to come
Louisville’s offensive blueprint has changed under assistant Ross McMains. The Cardinals are 30th nationally in shortest offensive time of possession, per KenPom, as they get out in transition more frequently. A Chris Mack team has never ranked in the top 50 in shortest time of possession on offense. Per hoop-math.com, the Cards are 20th in percentage of shots taken in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock after ranking 212th in that same stat last season. However, that doesn’t mean the Cards are getting good quick shots yet. UofL has the 15th worst effective FG% in transition so far this season!
The Cards also have reduced their reliance on the midrange shot. Last season Louisville took 35% of their shots from midrange, and that’s decreased to 24% this season. Those midrange shots have been swapped out for more efficient threes, which accounted for 30% of UofL’s shots last season but 43% this go around. However, Louisville’s 3 point FG% has actually dropped from 31% last season to just 29% so far this term.
There’s reason to believe that these early season results are flukishly bad. First, the transition offense. Louisville currently has the worst eFG% in transition of any power conference team at 44%; Louisville’s worst year in the 10 years data is available at hoop-math.com was 49% in 2015. Withers, Williamson, and Dre Davis were above 55% last year, but all are at 50% or worse this year. Noah Locke is at 40% this year, including a 30% 3ptFG% in transition; last season he had an eFG% in transition of 69% including 53% on threes. Jarrod West is at 26% this season including 8% on threes (1-13), but had a transition eFg% of 70% last season including 51% from three. These players didn’t completely forget how to score on the fast break all of a sudden. In Locke and West’s case, they have gone from being amazing transition scorers to being disastrous.
The three point shooting should similarly pick up. The transition numbers above for Locke and West aren’t reflective of their true shooting ability, as West is hitting 39% of his threes in halfcourt offense and Locke is hitting 37%. Noah Locke is also having a strange amount of trouble with unguarded catch and shoot threes, hitting just 2 of 17 this season per Synergy. He was 43 of 91 last season on them, so he’s due to start hitting. Louisville may want to try to get West some catch and shoot looks as well, as he’s hit 6 of 15 (guarded and unguarded ) and hit 21 of 50 last season at Marshall.
There’s a clear successful core
3 Cards have started every game this season (Jarrod West, Noah Locke, Dre Davis) with Malik Williams and Jae’lyn Withers each starting all but once. I honestly have no idea what to make of the odd Sydney Curry start in the opener against Southern, but the move to elevate Matt Cross to the starting lineup last game seemed like a reasonable one given Withers’ lack of production. The usual starting lineup has been easily the most used one for Louisville with 137 non-garbage time possessions, and the 2nd most used lineup is the new starters with Cross in for Withers (53 possessions). Both have been very successful, combining to outscore opponents by 76 points in 190 possessions, but that shouldn’t be a surprise. The core of West/Locke/Davis/Williams has been at the heart of almost everything successful UofL has done this season.
Our standout quartet has played together for at least 20 possessions in each of the last 6 games after playing just 43 total possessions in the first 3, but they’ve gotten results every time regardless. Incredibly, Louisville has not been outscored in any game this season during the time these 4 have been together. However, they seem to function best as a collective unit. If you look at any three of them when the fourth sits, their effectiveness drops off dramatically.
This foursome also has played almost exclusively with either Withers or Cross; they played 9 possessions in a small lineup with El Ellis and outscored Detroit Mercy and Michigan State by 7 points, but otherwise that’s it. No minutes with Williamson, Traynor, Faulkner, etc.
This group has been consistently excellent on the defensive end. No opponent has scored more than 75 points per 100 possessions against them. The key has been keeping three point shooters in check. Southern hit 33% (1-3) in the opener against this quarter, but no other opponent has broken 30% from deep, and collectively UofL’s opponents have hit just 20% from three against them. This group has also shown off quick hands on defense, recording a steal on 13% of opponent possessions. That level of thievery would rank in the top 20 if it were UofL’s team rate.
Noah Locke has found his role as a sniper in these lineups, hitting 13 of 22 threes alongside his preferred running mates. This has powered Louisville to a 37% 3pt FG% with this group (47% in halfcourt offense). In the minutes with Matt Cross, this lineup has posted a 42% 3pt FG%.
If Louisville wants to maximize their results over the next month or so, they may want to shrink the rotation down. Beyond a starting lineup of West, Locke, Davis, Cross, and Williams, El Ellis has clearly earned his place, and probably Sam Williamson, but that’s about it. Results have been inconsistent with literally anyone else in the game. Between Jae’lyn Withers, and Roosevelt Wheeler UofL needs to find a backup center who can positively impact winning, but it hasn’t really been there.When UofL plays some combo of the 7 man rotation I laid out above, they:
Score 127 points per 100 possessions
Allow 77 points per 100 possessions
If you add Withers, the offense falls off to 106 points per 100 possessions (although the defense improves a bit). If you add Wheeler, the offense drops to 116 points per 100 possessions and the defense allows 81 points per 100 possessions.
On the positive side, Louisville has a core that fits well together and is getting tremendous results. However, this core excludes some players who expected to have significant roles this season for the Cards. I don’t envy the coaching staff having to manage this situation and balance winning this season with maintaining a culture and roster into the next few seasons.
I think Louisville still has its best basketball ahead of it this season. They showed flashes, but a little better shooting luck and potential a commitment to a shortened rotation might be able to elevate the Cards into contention in the ACC this year.