UofL will have more length...so what does that mean?
Most of the Cards roster next season will be 6'6" or bigger. I looked into how college teams tend to benefit from that kind of length, and where UofL might improve.
I’ve expressed some concern over this summer about the lack of guards on Louisville’s roster for this upcoming season, and the new addition of Fabio Basili doesn’t do a ton to assuage my concerns in that area. However, the flipside to not having many ballhandlers is that Louisville does have a few wings with length. It is conceivable that between Mike James, Devin Ree, Kamari Lands, and others UofL might not have a player shorter than 6’6” play shooting guard or small forward for many significant minutes this season.“Length” may become the defining buzzword of the inaugural season of the Kenny Payne-coached Cardinals.
Last season Louisville did not have much length on the wing at all. Per KenPom.com, the Cards ranked 237th in the average heigth of their shooting guards and 206th for small forwards (weighted by playing time). This season I’d expect Louisville to be in the top 20 for each at least. But how meaningful is it for a team to become longer on the wing? Anyone can construct a narrative in their mind about what might happen, but I decided to look through the data on what it’s meant over the past 3 seasons for college basketball teams to have length at the wing positions.
Some context on length
I’m using data from KenPom.com on average height by position for the past 3 seasons. Last season, Southern Cal was #1 in average small forward height as they ran out 3 different 6’9” players at that spot; that put them about 4 inches taller than the average D-1 team’s small forwards. Stanford’s shooting guards were the tallest last season, with 6’7” and 6’8” guys making up most of the minutes and measuring 3 inches taller than the average team there.
With Louisville playing a lot of smaller backcourts (nobody bigger than 6’3”), and featuring 6’3” Noah Locke or 6’5” Dre Davis at small forward a lot, the Cards ranked as smaller than average on the wing last season. Obviously that’s going to change quite a bit this season. However, Louisville doesn’t project to rate as very long at power forward or center this season with no roster players listed taller than 6’10”. For that reason, I’m focusing on what it means for a team to have a lot of length at shooting guard and small forward.
What impact does wing length have?
I used the last 3 seasons of data to look for team stats that correlate with length at either or both of the shooting guard and small forward positions. So, if lots of teams rank highly in length at these positions and those teams also rank highly in defensive rebounding, and vice versa, there’s a positive correlation. Similarly, if a team ranks high in length at these positions but poorly in offensive turnover rate (and vice versa), there’s a negative correlation. So, what does the data say?
Here are stats with a positive correlation, meaning that being longer on the wing improves them:
Defensive rebounding rate
Defensive free throw rate (allowing fewer)
Defensive block rate
Opponent 2pt FG% (allows a lower rate)
Opponent 3pt FG% (particularly for SF length)
Offensive rebounding rate (particularly for SF length)
Offensive assist rate (more baskets made off assists)
Most of the benefit tends to come on defense, where length helps to contain and contest shots. It makes sense that taller players get more rebounds and blocks, so no issue there. The lower free throw rate allowed may be a function of being able to contest shots at a little greater distance, reducing the chance for contact; it also is likely related to something that will come up in the next paragraph. The increase in assist rate is likely related to taller players being a bit less likely to create on their own in isolation, which could enable El Ellis to have a big season as a playmaker setting up his taller teammates.
There are some other stats that have a negative correlation with wing length, meaning that they get worse as teams get longer:
Defensive turnover rate
Defensive steal rate
Offensive turnover rate (especially among high major teams)
While some of the discussion around length presumes that longer teams can create turnovers by blocking passing lanes, that doesn’t really hold up when looking at the data. Teams who force turnovers tend to have smaller, ballhawking guards; this leads to not only steals but passes that soar out of bounds, traveling calls, charges, etc. This is likely related to the lower free throw rates for longer teams, as teams who pressure the ball and create turnovers will also commit more fouls; less ball pressure means fewer fouls and free throws. Taller players (especially wings) do tend to have less of a tight handle, which may be contributing to higher offensive turnover rates; this shows up to a stronger degree with high major teams, where there’s a greater difference between the best ballhandlers and more subpar ones.
So that’s what the data says overall, but there’s one thing that could be affecting this. There’s the possibility that coaching influences on playing style and roster construction affect this. For example, some coaches may like to play 3 guard lineups and press a lot; that doesn’t mean that taller lineups are bad at it necessarily. So I decided to look at some specific teams who have had recent seasons with a lot of wing length and very little wing length, to see how that impacted those specific teams.
Some specific examples point towards trends
There are a handful of high-major teams in recent years who have fielded teams with a lot of wing length, and teams with very little wing length. While there’s not a perfect blueprint of what happens in these cases, there are a lot of similarities that may be meaningful for Louisville this season.
Alabama
The Crimson Tide had a lot of wing length in 2021, ranking in the top 50 at both SF and SG after being average in both 2020 and 2022. In that 2021 season, the Tide ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency per KenPom; they were 92nd in 2022 and 114th in 2020. A big part of that was holding opponents to a much lower 2pt FG% and 3pt FG%, allowing fewer FTs, and better defensive rebounding. Across the board, the players at SG and SF in 2021 rated better (per Synergy and KenPom) in these areas than their counterparts in 2020 and 2022.
Nebraska
Nebraska ranked in the top 25 in 2021 for SG and SF height, but were smaller on the wing in 2020 and 2022. They were one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country in 2020 and 2022, but were much improved in 2021. They recorded assists on a higher percentage of their makes in 2021 with a longer team, and committed more turnovers but also got more offensive rebounds.
Northwestern
The Wildcats were one of the longest teams on the wing in the country in 2020, but by 2022 they had become one of the shortest wing teams in power conferences. They forced more turnovers as they migrated to smaller wings, but allowed more free throws. They were a good 3 pt defense with their longer wings, but that eroded as they got smaller.
Tennessee
The Volunteers were very long in 2020, ranking 7th in SG height and 38th in SF height, but were much smaller in 2022 (300th at SG and 133rd at SF). They committed more turnovers and forced fewer with longer wings, but had a much higher rate of blocking shots and much better 2 pt defense.
Wake Forest
This is a very interesting comparison because, like Louisville, they got longer on the wing following a coaching change. In 2020 the Demon Deacons were average or lower in SG and SF height, but by 2022 under Steve Forbes they fielded the 10th tallest SGs and 38th tallest SFs. They allowed much lower FT rates and much lower opponent 2pt FG% as their defense improved dramatically without an uptick in turnover rate.
So what does this mean for Louisville? It’s always tough to predict things, but I think next season the Cards should improve in:
Defensive rebounding
2pt FG% defense
FT rate allowed
Conversely, I would not expect Louisville to show much improvement in:
Rate of committing turnovers
Rate of forcing turnovers/steals
Last season, UofL ranked 54th in defensive rebounding rate per KenPom; I’d expect them to rise into maybe the top 25 this season. Jae’lyn Withers and Sydney Curry were strong on the defensive glass, and with additional length on the wing the Cards should make this a strength. The Cards were just average in 2pt defense and FT rate allowed; I’d expect them to improve in these areas to being around the top 100.
On the flipside, Louisville was pretty poor last year in forcing turnovers; I don’t expect much improvement this season. The Cards were just average in holding on to the ball, and I’d expect about the same with possibly even some regression there.
I’d expect Louisville to establish an identity as a team who rebounds well and uses their length to contest shots, rather than a team who forces turnovers. This will limit the ability for the Cards to get out into transition much, so the offensive end of the court is likely going to depend on collecting offensive rebounds and whatever playmaking El Ellis can generate. Offensive rebounding wasn’t a team strength last year, but Sydney Curry and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield were strong in that area. They’re going to need to repeat that or get even better to offset some of the challenges that playing with length brings.
Overall, the length on this Cardinal team should help them compete defensively, but they are going to need to find an identity on offense. We’ll have to wait until November and December to see how that goes, but at least now you have some idea of what to expect!