UofL needs another playmaker
Chris Mack teams without several playmakers have tended to underperform, and next season's Cardinals look to be short in that department
In my last article about Louisville, I wrote that Louisville may need one more transfer guard if Carlik Jones elected to turn pro. Jones in fact did so, and I’ve become more convinced than ever that the Cardinals have a critical need for more playmaking. While the outside shooting has been substantially upgraded, past Chris Mack teams have thrived with multiple playmakers and flopped when depending on only 1-2 lead creators. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I look at Chris Mack’s history with multiple playmakers, how his teams have struggled without them, and just how difficult it is to find even 2 reliable high-level playmakers on the current roster for next season.
A history of multi-headed attacks
At Louisville and Xavier, Chris Mack has almost always had several capable playmakers in his rotation. My preferred way to measure playmaking is assist rate, which is the percentage of teammates’ made baskets a player accounts for. For example, last season Carlik Jones had an assist rate of 26% and David Johnson was at 19%. The season before, Johnson was at 36% in limited minutes. Over the past 12 years, Chris Mack teams have:
Had at least 3 starters with an assist rate of 10% or higher 10 times
Had at least 3 players with an assist rate of 15% or higher 7 times
Had 4 players with an assist rate of 13% or higher twice
Note that assist rate only considers baskets that are made and is a rate statistic, so it isn’t suppressed by teams who struggle to score or teams who play a slow pace. It is measuring how frequently players are creating baskets for their teammates, and Mack’s teams tend to have 3 or more players who can create at a solid clip.
Chris Mack teams have always had at least 2 starting guards with assist rates of 10% or higher, and rarely have his teams had any players 6’6” or shorter who missed this threshold. Remy Abell had one season under 10% when every other starter was over 10%, Dez Wells was under 10% during his 1 season at Xavier, and wing Justin Martin never cracked 10% during his 3 years at Xavier before transferring.
The playmakers aren’t always just guards, either. At Xavier, Mack had wings like JP Macura and Trevon Blueitt who put up strong assist rate, and even had 6’10” Matt Stainbrook as a capable playmaker.
Simply put, Chris Mack teams almost always have a surplus of playmakers. But when they don’t, it’s not pretty….
For Mack, success is tied to playmaking
I mentioned above that Mack teams had 3 or more starters with an assist rate of 10% or better in 10 of his 12 years coaching. The two exceptions were:
2021, when only Carlik Jones and David Johnson surpassed that mark
2013 at Xavier, when Semaj Christon and Dee Davis were the only Musketeers above that mark
Curiously enough, those are also the only two years in coaching where a Chris Mack team was not selected for the NCAA Tournament. Those two years were also the two lowest ranked offenses per KenPom, with the 2021 Cardinals ranking 92nd in offensive efficiency and the 2013 Musketeers at 116th. Lastly, those were also the two years when Mack’s teams ranked lowest in overall assist rate. The 2021 edition was 313th nationally, and the 2013 one placed 291st, per KenPom.
Clearly, Chris Mack’s preferred style of offense relies on ball movement and playmaking from multiple sources. When his teams put up low assist rates, they also tend to play at slower tempo; the 2021 Louisville teams had the 4th slowest tempo of any Mack teams and 2013 Xavier was the slowest. This tends to show up in relatively few transition baskets; per hoop-math.com, 2021 Louisville ranked 212th in frequency of transition baskets and 2013 Xavier was 273rd. No other Chris Mack-coached team has been worse than 180th.
Based on Mack’s history, Louisville needs to have more playmakers next season than they did this past season, but it’s tough to find anyone beyond El Ellis and maybe Jarrod West who has that skill set.
The 2021-22 Cards look short on playmaking…for now
Based on history, having at least 3 players with an assist rate in the 13-15% range seems like the sweet spot for Chris Mack’s offense. Can Louisville have that type of offense next season? It seems unlikely without an addition. Newcomer El Ellis looks like a lock to fill the playmaking void, as he averaged 4.5 assists per game in only 28 minutes per game in junior college. I don’t have the equivalent assist rate, but based on previous UofL guards that should work out to 30% or so. Even assuming a decline due to the jump in competition, Ellis should put up an assist rate of 25% or better, which is a hallmark of a lead playmaker.
Beyond that, the picking get slim. Transfer Jarrod West put up assist rates of 20% or better each of the last 2 season at Marshall, but was at 9% as a sophomore. Additionally, he seems penciled in as a backup guard right now. I am optimistic that he can bring some playmaker chops, but I seem to be the only person on the internet who thinks West is a viable option to start in the backcourt. If he has a bench role, Louisville will need to find playmaking from one other starter.
Noah Locke seems to be the consensus pick to start at shooting guard. While he’s an excellent outside shooter, he brings almost no playmaking. In 3 seasons at Florida, he consistenly put up assist rates under 5% and averaged right at 1 assist per game. He might have hidden playmaking talent, but there’s no evidence of it, and you’d have to wonder why it never showed up at all in Gainesville.
Freshman Mike James may end up filling a backcourt role, but he’s unlikely to stand out as a playmaker. First of all, he’s probably not going to start. Second of all, he played small forward in high school and was not known as a playmaker or creator for others. It would be quite a stretch for him to change his game dramatically as a freshman and also fill a major role for Louisville.
The playmaking role doesn’t HAVE to be filled by a guard; after all, Mack has had wings and even an occasional big who had passing chops. However, none of UofL’s returnees from last year has shown the ability to create offense for others in college. Samuell Williamson had the 3rd highest assist rate on the team last season at 8.9%, but he’s yet to have as many assists as turnovers in a college season. Williamson likely needs to improve his outside shot to become an NBA prospect, so it seems like he’ll need to pick a focus area for improvement and playmaking might not be #1 on that list. Matt Cross did put up an assist rate of 10.8% in 14 games at Miami, but is Cross going to start over Sam Williamson? Jae’lyn Withers and Malik Williams will likely be the startings bigs, but Withers had 9 total assists last season and Williams has 26 total in 3+ seasons at UofL.
Somebody currently on the roster for next season could emerge as another playmaker in the starting lineup next to El Ellis, but I can’t find any evidence that indicates who that would be. For that reason, I think Louisville needs to be aggressive in finding a combo guard type who can play alongside Ellis. The history of Chris Mack teams suggests they need to find at least one more capable playmaker in order to execute the offense he’s had success with. If they do, the Cards should reassert themselves in the ACC and maybe even more. If they don’t…well, it won’t be pretty.
Based on this and other criteria you know of successful Mack teams, who is currently out there in the portal who would fit best?
Good stuff for the discussion. I’m optimistic for Sam to be that guy but I agree Mack needs to go find one if he can.