UofL looking for 1 more guard?
If Carlik Jones elects to pursue a professional career, the Cards need another backcourt piece. Who are the best options left in the transfer portal?
April 26th Update: Carlik Jones has elected to turn pro and not return to Louisville. Best of luck to him!
The biggest question remaining for the Louisville Cardinals men’s basketball team this offseason is whether or not Carlik Jones will take advantage of his free year of eligiblity and return to the team next season. All anyone seems to know is that it truly is up in the air; everyone is reporting that it’s 50-50 and there’s no timetable for a decision that I’ve seen.
Carlik’s decision is consequential for next year’s Cards. Per the very fun RosterCast tool at BartTorvik.com, Louisville will jump from 32nd in his 2021-22 rankings to 13th if Carlik returns. That feels right, too, as the one piece missing from the current roster is a proven lead guard. Many of the added pieces (Noah Locke, Matt Cross, Jarrod West) feel like they are best suited to play off a creative ballhandler and scorer like Carlik.
Needless to say, if Carlik leaves then the roster seems to be light on playmaking. JuCo transfer El Ellis will likely carry that burden and it remains to be seen if he’s ready for that at the ACC level. There isn’t another player who is a surefire match for that role, altough Jarrod West at least has had some success as a playmaker at Marshall. UofL will likely need to turn back to the portal to find another lead guard who can make all the pieces fit together. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I try to determine what options Louisville has in case Carlik Jones departs.
Precious few elite lead ballhandlers
While over 1,400 players have entered the transfer portal, there aren’t a lot of players who have a high chance of jumping in as the lead playmaker for a team with designs on contending for an ACC title. Among the top uncommitted players are a lot of wings and combo guards, but not many true standout playmakers. One of the top players in the portal is Minnesota’s Marcus Carr; he’s definitely a proven playmaker, but is testing the NBA Draft and seems unlikely to consider Louisville as his next destination.
I’d characterize Louisville’s need as follows:
Guard with experience as lead ballhandler, playmaker, and potentially scorer
Strong outside shooting not necessary but a plus
Needs to be able to penetrate defense
Needs solid assist/turnover ratio
Needs to project as capable of being lead guard in ACC
Preferable to have mutliple years of eligiblity remaining (so we don’t have to do this again next season)
Among the options in the portal, I want to focus on 3 who I think could potentially fit the bill: Coastal Carolina’s Devante Jones, Portland’s Ahmed Ali, and Georgia’s Sahvir Wheeler.
DeVante Jones (Jr G, 6’1”, Coastal Carolina)
Jones is no relation to Carlik, but is probably the most reasonable facsimile of the former Radford and UofL standout. Jones was the Sun Belt player of the year last season, averaging 19 pts and 3 assists per game. Per KenPom, he was used as more of a combo guard last season, with an assist rate of 17% (below either Carlik or DJ), but was clearly the lead guard as a freshman and sophomore when he put up assist rate of 25% and 33%. He has not been a strong outside shooter, hitting 33% of his threes last season and 32% for his career, but he is a very good finisher at the rim (60%+ FG% there each year) and has tended to take about 40% of his shots at the rim. Louisville has not had a starting guard take 40% of their shots at the rim and hit 60% of them during the last decade, although Peyton Siva and Russ Smith approached that mark. DeVante Jones would immediately step is a dangerous weapon off the bounce for UofL.
DeVante’s stat profile from last season is reminiscent of Carlik’s at Radford. Both players were high volume, efficient scorers who made plays for others, with Carlik being a bit more efficient and higher volume. Both players had reasonable turnover rates for their role, strong defensive rebounding numbers, and good rates of draing fouls and collecting steals, all of which indicate that they have the skills and athleticism to move up in competition. DeVante has had limited experience against quality teams, playing only 7 games against top-100 competition (per Bart Torvik), but there are no consistent red flags in his play against better teams.
Per Synergy, Jones’ role evolved wuite a bit during his time as a Chanticleer. He was heavily used in pick and roll and isolation as a freshman and sophomore, and was graded as Very Good in those roles. He moved into more of a spot up role as a junior and was again graded as Very Good. For comparison’s sake, Carlik was graded as Excellent in all three areas as a junior at Radford, so DeVante isn’t quite the weapon Carlik was but can reasonably fill in.
The defensive stats on DeVante are inconsistent. Synergy graded him as below average last season but defensive box-plus mins and defensive win shares (available here) paint a better picture. His size is reasonable for a lead guard, and his steal rate and low foul rate make it conceivable that he can guard in the ACC.
Ahmed Ali (5’11” Sr G, Portland)
Ali has been in the portal a few weeks due to a coaching change at Portland, and he’s a bit of an under the radar prospect. He played JuCo for 2 seasons, then was at Washington State for 1 year before the coach was fired. He sat out a transfer year before playing for Portland last season. Ali had so-so numbers at Washington State but emerged last year as the star on a bad (6-15) Portland team.
He averaged 18ppg last season and was a solid scorer, hitting 38% of his threes and 49% of his twos. Per Hoop-Math.com, he is an OK finisher at the rim, converting 55% there. His raw assist totals weren’t very impressive due to poor talent around him, but he did assist on 27% of his teammates made baskets; that’s a higher rate than either Carlik Jones or David Johnson put up last season. Portland did play in the West Coast Conference with some stronger teams like Gonzaga and BYU, and per KenPom Ali held up well in games against stronger teams.
Ali graded out very well on offense per Synergy. He was in the 92nd percentile in points per possession overall on offense, the 83rd in pick and roll, 99th on spot ups, and 100th in isolation. In fact, he had the highest points per possession on isolation plays of any player in the country despite standing just 5’11”.
Defensively, Ali was evaluated as being poor to below average. Synergy graded him in the 47th percentile, while defensive box plus-miunus and win shares had him as a net negative.
Ali may not quite fit the exact mold as a distributor that UofL needs, but he certainly seems like he can be a creator and playmaker at the lead guard spot. His offensive numbers last year were impressive, and his competition level was at least decent. He might be worth a gamble, figuring that with better shooting talent around him he could be a stronger distributor.
Sahvir Wheeler (5’10” So G, Georgia)
Wheeler is arguably the most “pure” point guard of this trio, rating 11th in the country in assist rate last season (per KenPom). However, he’s also by far the most lackluster scorer of the three, with an effective FG% of just 42% last season. He was passable at the rim, hitting 54% there, but really struggled with his jump shot. In halfcourt situations, Wheeler hit just 18% of his attempts from three. The silver lining is that Wheeler took more than half of his attempts at the rim, so he clearly can attack off the dribble. Wheeler also put up strong numbers in transition, with an effective FG% of 51% there (per Hoop Math), so he likely has the explosiveness UofL needs at that guard spot.
Synergy was not bullish on his offense last season, as he rated in the 20th percentile in points per possession as a scorer. He was below average in pick and roll, ranking in the 33rd percentile, but he did rank in the 76th if you include his passing. Wheeler is much more capable as a distributor off the dribble than as a scorer, and could really benefit from UofL’s shooters next season. At Georgia last year, he only had 1 teammate who hit more than 35% of their threes in halfcourt offense. UofL may have enough shooters next season that Wheeler could be very effective in a drive-and-kick role.
Wheeler is another player whose defensive stats are conflicting. Synergy rated him in the 64th percentile as a defender, but his defensive box plus-minus and win shares were less impressive.
The case for Wheeler over the other two boils down to 2 factors:
Wheeler played against stronger competition in the SEC than the other two, so he is more likely to sustain in the ACC
UofL needs a pure distributor more than a scorer/shooter at the point
If you believe in those 2 factors, you might want to take Wheeler, but if not you’d probably lean towards Jones or Ali.
Louisville is in a tough spot right now until Carlik Jones makes his decision. It’s unlikely a top-tier guard will transfer to UofL if Carlik might return, but if he doesn’t then UofL is pretty desperate for a lead guard. The best options in the portal for UofL seem to be Devante Jones of Coastal Carolina, Ahmed Ali of Portland, and Sahvir Wheeler of Georgia. Jones and Ali combine lead guard skills with scoring ability, in the vein of Carlik Jones, while Wheeler is a stronger distributor but nowhere near the scorer of the other two.
UofL fans should hope to have a conclusion to this saga soon so they can either celebrate the return of Carlik Jones or move on to the next option. The above options should all be able to fill a role UofL needs, but time is of the essence. Either way, there’s no rest this offseason for Louisville’s coaching staff or fans as they get ready for next season.
UofL looking for 1 more guard?
Great take. Love the review of lower level guys and not just looking at the top ranked high school guy.