The importance of El Ellis
In a difficult season, Louisville's juco transfer guard has been a spark. Just how important has he been?
With everything that has gone on this season, a growing segment of the Louisville Cardinals basketball fanbase is ready to turn the page and look forward. A new season will bring a new coach and likely quite a few new players. I’ve seen a number of people on Twitter express the opinion that whoever the new coach is, their first order of business should be to convince El Ellis to return next season.
Ellis hasn’t had an amazing overall season, to be certain. He averages 7.7 points per game in 18 minutes per game, with 32 assists to 29 turnovers. He has an effective FG% of 49.3%, 4th among rotation players but below average for a power conference guard. But those are season-long numbers, and what Louisville Twitter is expressing when they circle him as a key is the fact that Ellis has emerged as a dynamic force even as Louisville’s season circled the drain over the last month. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I highlight Ellis’ recent performance and try to explain why he’s so important for future editions of UofL basketball.
A light in the recent darkness
Over the last 8 games Louisville is 2-6, with the lone wins over conference dregs Pittsburgh and Boston College at home. It might seem odd to say that Ellis’ play during that stretch is doing anything to help UofL win, but I can make that case.
During those 8 games, the only game where Louisville did not play better with Ellis on the court was the NC State loss. During that game UofL lost by 24 points with Ellis in, but that is due to unbelievably cold shooting from the entire team. The Cards went 1-12 on twos (0 for 10 in halfcourt offense) during that stretch and got slaughtered. While Ellis didn’t help matters (he was 0 for 4 on twos), he wasn’t the whole problem and that performance was aberrant. We’ll leave that one aisde and focus on the other 7.
In the other 7 games since January 5, Louisville has been solid with Ellis on the court and dreadful when he leaves. Louisville is:
+16 in 246 possessions with Ellis in, scoring 105.5 pts/100 poss and allowing 99.0
-55 in 204 possessions with Ellis out, scoring 91.3 pts/100 poss and allowing 118.2
Ellis himself has been outstanding, with an effective FG% of 53.4% despite taking on the heavy burden of shot creation (28% of UofL shots). He’s averaging 19.2 pts/40 minutes while hitting 46% of his twos and 43% of his threes, and putting up a 3:2 assist to turnover ration. His only real weakness has been finishing at the rim in halfcourt offense; he has hit 5 of 7 there in transition but only 4 of 12 in halfcourt.
Impressive results despite little stability
Over this 7 game sample, Louisville has only been outscored twice with Ellis on the court (at Pitt, vs Virginia). Considering that UofL is 2-5 in these games, that’s a pretty impressive statement. In both games Louisville was even worse on a per possession basis with Ellis out, so his minutes were still a bright spot. Louisville’s results with Ellis in are highly correlated with the team’s 3 point accuracy, which has been a strong suit with him in the game. In the 5 games where UofL outscored opponents with Ellis, the Cards hit no worse than 33% in any game from three. In the two where they were outscored, the Cards hit 21% (Pitt) and 27% (UVa) from three. So, we have a seven game sample where Ellis played significant minutes and Louisville outscored opponents unless they had a particularly poor shooting night. Again, since Louisville ended up losing most of these games it’s pretty impressive that they were so competitive when Ellis played.
In this 7 game sample, Ellis has had very little stability in the teammates surrounding him. Out of 246 possessions, no 5 man lineup has played more than 17 together, so this isn’t a case of Louisville having 1 group that can do well with Ellis. Only two teammates played in as many as half of Ellis’ 246 possessions: Malik Williams (137) and Noah Locke (132). Oddly enough, Louisville actually had a negative margin in the Ellis/Locke minutes (-5) and the Ellis/Williams minutes (-11). So, Ellis didn’t get much consistent time with any teammates, and Louisville actually struggled with Ellis and the teammates he paired with the most.
Clear offensive improvement
As I mentioned in the stats above, Louisville improved in both points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions with Ellis in the game lately. The defensive improvement has largely come from two key factors: Louisville is making more shots and gets to set their defense, and opponents have been unable to hit threes in transition. The defensive improvement is therefore a byproduct of offensive improvement and some shooting luck.
The offensive improvement, however, is pretty significant and seems to be driven by Ellis. There are 3 key areas that I want to highlight:
Louisville is better at the rim with Ellis. Louisville has taken 27% of their shots in halfcourt offense at the rim with Ellis in and hit 64%, vs just 23% and 60% when he sits. Ellis takes 33% of his shots at the rim and makes 47%; that doesn’t sound amazing, but his backcourt colleagues Mason Faulkner, Noah Locke, and Jarrod West are positively allergic to scoring at the rim when Ellis sits. They have taken 7 shots at the rim out of 69 total shots with Ellis out, and hit just 1 of those 7. Ellis looks like Giannis by comparison.
Louisville’s outside shooters are better with Ellis. Ellis’ forays to the rim draw defensive attention, which opens up passes to shooters for quality shots. Of Louisville’s most frequent outside shooters, only Jarrod West is better with Ellis out:
Noah Locke: 46% 3pt FG% with Ellis in, 33% with him out
Mason Faulkner: 33% with Ellis in, 27% with him out
Matt Cross: 25% with Ellis in, 18% with him out
Jarrod West: 30% with Ellis in, 46% with him out
Louisville gets good shots quicker with Ellis in. When Ellis has been in the game lately, UofL takes 35% of their halfcourt offense shots in the final 10 seconds of the shot clock and has a 52% effective FG% on these. When Ellis is out, UofL takes 43% of their halfcourt offense shots in the final 10 seconds and has a 49% eFG%. Ellis can create offense with his drives more quickly, and even when Louisville gets late in the clock he can usually help create better looks.
While Louisville hasn’t had a lot of bright spots lately, El Ellis is absolutely one. His dynamic offensive creation and outside shooting are the catalysts for a functional Cardinal offense. He’s helping his teammates score as well, and even puts UofL in better defensive positions. He can absolutely be a keystone for an improved Cardinal team next season.