Some rotation trends for UofL
The last 2 games have seen big departures in lineup and rotation patterns for Louisville. Might it help get the season on track?
Louisville fans have been patiently waiting this season for everything to click for their favorite team. OK, maybe not so patiently, but they’ve definitely been looking for some sign that the team is ready to make a run into the NCAA Tournament.
The last 2 games have seen the Cardinals struggle through a narrow win over doormat Pittsburgh and fight back but ultimately fall to Florida State. These results may not seem like much of a turning point, but Louisville has absolutely begun changing many of the patterns in their rotation. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I’m going to point out what’s changed and what fans should look for to tell if it’s working.
Getting away from what was carrying them
Prior to the Pittsburgh game, Louisville had played 7 games against major conference teams (Mississippi State, Maryland, Michigan State, NC State, DePaul, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech). Louisville was 5-2 in those games, and had solid underlying stats:
Scoring 98.5 pts/100 poss and allowing 92.3
Adjusted margin of +17.2 pts/100 poss (accounting for opponent strength and game location)
The Cards were turnover-prone, commiting a turnover on 21% of possessions vs 17% for opponents. Overall they were led by their defense, as the offense struggled quite a bit.
What was carrying the Cardinals was the performance of lineups with Jarrod West and Malik Williams. When this duo was in the game, Louisville outscored power conference opponents by +90 points in 265 possessions. Louisville got destroyed when one or both sat, losing by -61 points in 202 possessions. With West and Williams, Louisville scored 111.3 pts/100 poss and allowed just 77.4, with an adjusted margin of +44.8/100 poss; that type of adjusted margin reflects a team playing at an elite level. It’s not hyperbole to say that these lineups were the reason Louisville won so many of these games, as Louisville was outscored in every single game against a power conference opponent in the non West/Williams minutes, except Mississippi State.
Louisville excelled on both offense and defense with these lineups. On offense, the biggest strength was scoring at the rim; Louisville hit 68% of their shots at the rim with West & Williams in vs 59% overall. On defense, it was the opposite, as Louisville held opponents to 49% shooting at the rim and 28% from midrange. A key was forcing opponents late in the clock, as almost 40% of opponents shots were taken in the last 10 seconds of the shot clock vs about 20% for the Cards. These lineups played at least 30 possessions in each of Louisville’s first 7 games against power conference opponents and played very well.
It’s been a different story in the last 2. Against Pittsburgh and Florida State, Williams and West combined for just 38 total possessions. What’s most interesting is the variety of lineups they’ve played together in, or more accurately the lack of variety. 31 of their 38 possessions have been with one lineup, the starters (West/Locke/Williamson/Cross/Williams). In earlier power conference games the West/Williams minutes were more spread out, as 5 different West/Williams lineups played at least 13 possessions and 4 with 25 or more.
West & Williams lineups have been fine, with a plus/minus of exactly zero in those 38 possessions (vs -6 in 98 for all other lineups). They’ve lost their touch at the rim, giving up a 71% Fg% there, but just 31% from midrange. Opponents are still not getting quick shots, with 14 of 29 shots taken in the last 10 seconds. Louisville still isn’t scoring well with these groups (94.7 pts/100 poss) but they are still defending well. It’s a bit puzzling why the coaching staff has gone away from playing Williams and West together. Yes, Malik was in foul trouble against Pittsburgh, but even the minutes he’s played have been without West more often than not. Prior to Pittsburgh, 45% of his minutes against power conference teams were with West. The last 2 games that’s dropped to 33%. The minutes this duo played are the reason Louisville looked good for almost the entire season prior to the Pittsburgh game, but now they seem to be de-emphasized and it doesn’t make much sense. They have an extensive sample of playing well, and Louisville was still better in the last 2 games with them in the game.
A new backcourt duo shows promise
The most positive development in the last 2 games has been the rise of the El Ellis/Mason Faulkner duo as a positive force. Prior to the Pitt game these two were struggling to make a positive impact. Louisville had a negative margin when they played against a power conference team in every game except Mississippi State, with the offense and defense both looking lost. The Cards scored 82.5 pts/100 and gave up 113.8/100 against power conference teams with Ellis and Faulkner in the game. They were turnover prone, committing one on 29% of possessions, and had fouling problems with opponents taking almost twice as many free throws as the Cards.
The last 2 games have seen better results. Louisville is +6 in 52 possessions the last 2 games with these 2 in the game, scoring 115.4 pts/100 and giving up 103.8. Nothing seems wildly unsustainable about the improvement, as they’ve reduced turnovers to 13%, are hitting 35% of threes, and opponents are hitting 31% of threes. Aside from controlling turnovers, the biggest positive impact has been improvement attacking the rim. In the last 2 games Louisville is taking 40% of their shots at the rim and hitting 65%. In the entirety of the first 7 power conference games UofL was at 33% and 59%, respectively, so this is real improvement. Ellis and Faulkner themselves have driven a lot of this, hitting 5 of 8 at the rim in the last 2 games on top of 4 of 10 from three. The defense is still a bit shaky and foul-prone, as Pitt and FSU also took about 2x as many FTs as Louisville when Ellis and Faulkner played, but the offensive improvement has made up for that.
The biggest concern around whether this can sustain is that most of the improvement was really just in the Florida State game. Louisville was +5 in 37 possessions they played together, but that’s by far the most they’ve played together all season. I’d like to see a few more games with a sustained improvement on offense driven by better finishing at the rim before I have full confidence.
Louisville may have a couple of lineup types they can throw out and compete with nearly anyone on their schedule: West/Williams and Ellis/Faulkner. The first is defensive oriented and the second offensive oriented, but both have shown signs that they can outscore opponents. The West/Williams lineups I have full faith in, as they’ve done so for the entire season. The Ellis/Faulkner duo seems to be figuring things out now and is making an impact where you’d expect. Louisville just needs to find ways to manage the rotation so they stagger these groups. Against Pitt and FSU Louisville was:
+ 7 in 51 possessions with “Ellis and Faulkner” lineups
+1 in 37 possessions with “West and Williams” lineups
-1 in 1 possession when Ellis, Faulkner, West, and Williams all played
-13 in 45 possessions with other lineups
Louisville fans should watch for these trends in the upcoming games. If the Ellis/Faulkner lineups can be a positive and Louisville minimizes the “other” minutes, they may really be on to something.