Quick notes on Wake Forest
As the Cards look to resume their season, I offer some brief analysis of their opponent
I very much appreciate your subscription to my newsletter, and I want you to know that I’m always thinking of ways to improve what I do. My focus is on relaying information that helps sharpen how you think about Louisville basketball and can enhance the way you watch the Cardinals. To that end, I am experimenting with adding data on some of Louisville’s ACC opponents to my free stats engine. You can filter through data ahead of their games with UofL and even download the data yourself. Today, I’m going to try out something new and offer some quick thoughts on Wake Forest using data from my stats engine (as well as a couple complimentary sites).
A gaudy record, but not dominant
The first thing to know about Wake Forest is that despite their 11-1 record they aren’t notably better than Louisville; in fact, they may even be a bit worse. Louisville is favored by about 5 points (mostly due to the game being in Louisville), but Wake Forest doesn’t have a resume that screams quality. They lost to LSU, and have 2 solid wins over Virginia Tech and Northwestern, but have some pretty poor performances that just happened to result in narrow wins due to the level of competition. The last 2 games for Wake have been a 7 point win over VMI and a 3 point win over Charlotte; both of these are easily worse than anyone Louisville has lost to. If Wake had played that poorly against Furman, WKU, or DePaul they would have probably lost each of those games. The same thing applies to Wake’s OT win over Oregon State this season, as the Beavers are quite bad for a power conference team.
Quality offense led by the backcourt
Wake isn’t especially good on either offense (64th per KenPom) or defense (81st), but they are 19th in effective Fg% on the strength of being the 8th best 2pt shooting team in the country. Per hoop-math.com, the Demon Deacons are 55th in FG% at the rim and 16th in midrange FG%. They also take only about 18% of their shots from midrange, so they have a solid offensive structure that leads to high value shots.
Wake will get out in transition quite frequently and is very effective there. Their guard Daivien Williamson is especially lethal from three in transition, hitting 11-23 from outside on the break. Small forward Isaiah Mucius also is very active as a shooter on the break, taking 20 of his 27 fast break shots from three. He’s hit only 6 of the 20, but he’s a 39% shooter from deep in halfcourt offense so he should be taken seriously as a shooting threat on the fast break.
Wake doesn’t have much in the way of true interior scoring threats. Their most dangerous finishers at the rim are their guards Alondes Williams and Davien Williamson. None of their big men are especially good around the rim in halfcourt offense, and Jake LaRavia and Isaiah Mucius are more likely to bomb away from three than to score inside.
Wake Forest does have some size, starting 6’8”, 6”8”, 7’0” across the front line and brining a 6’10” player off the bench, but the size isn’t very productive. None are especially good shot blockers or rebounders. When Wake Forest goes with smaller lineups they tend to struggle on defense. When playing only 2 of their quartet of 6’8” or taller players, they’ve usually been outscored due to a lack of interior defense.
Jake LaRavia has missed the past 2 games, but is expected to return against UofL to bolster Wake’s frontcourt rotation. UofL should be able to establish an advantage when Wake Forest goes small and plays Isaiah Mucius at power forward, but the Demon Deacons may not have to do that much as their big men don’t tend to committ many fouls. If UofL can manage to get LaRavia or backup Khadim Sy in foul trouble, they may be able to put a run together.
UofL does match up fairly well with Wake Forest’s strength, which is their backcourt. In Jarrod West, Noah Locke, and even Dre Davis, Louisville have players who can contain Williams and Williamson off the dribble. A key will be keeping these players from getting to the rim, especially in halfcourt offense. The ability for Malik Williams to switch and help shut down penetration should be a major factor as well. UofL allows only 47% shooting at the rim when West and Williams are in the game, and Louisville will need that type of performance tonight to stymie Wake Forest’s weapons.