Louisville Gets Their Guards

UofL needed to fortify their backcourt with transfers and landed two solid options. Between Jarrod West and Noah Locke, which do I expect to have a bigger impact?

Louisville is likely done combing through the transfer portal in search of immediate contributors next season. Given that, this will likely be my last transfer portal update for my UofL subscribers unless something REALLy dramatic happens. The transfer world is pretty exhausting to keep up with, as there are 15-20 lower level players for every 1 legitimate high major contributor. Louisville did land a couple of solid potential backcourt contributors this offseason in Jarrod West and Noah Locke, and in this article I will go indepth into what I’d expect from them next season. But first, the latest in the portal:

Total Players in Portal as of 9:00pm Eastern, April 13: 1,361

Total Players Committed to New School: 433

Total Programs With Players in Portal: 360

Programs with most players in portal: Tennessee-Martin (16), Portland (12), College of Charleston (11); in major conferences, DePaul (9), St. John’s /Minnesota/TCU/Texas Tech(8)

Programs landing most transfers: South Alabama (7), Duquesne/Robert Morris (5); in major conferences, Florida/Georgia/Iowa State/Minnesota/TCU (4)

What’s new and interesting in the portal?

• Impact of coaching changes: Most of the major conference schools who have had the most players enter the portal have changed coaches this offseason, although a coaching change doesn’t always mean an exodus. Indiana had nearly every contributor from last season enter the portal at one time, but ended up with all but 2 returning to school. They even picked up a transfer from Pittsburgh in Xavier Johnson. It’s important for new coaches to be able to use the portal to replace that roster turnover; Minnesota has done a nice job, for example.

• A lack of impact freshmen transferring: One of the fears that critics of transfer freedom have cited is that players would play one season at a lower level and go in search of a bigger platform, if they had success. That hasn’t really borne out however. I found 14 freshmen who averaged 12ppg or more last season for mid- or low-major programs, and only 3 have entered the portal so far: Wendell Green of Eastern Kentucky, Marcus Williams of Wyoming, and D’Anthony Pennington of UMKC.

• The ultra-veteran: Jalen Coleman-Lands is in the transfer portal and will be seeking a home for his 7th season in college. That’s right, his 7th season! His career saw him start at Illinois, transfer to Depaul (sitting out a year), take a medical redshirt, transfer to Iowa State, and now transferring again with his extra year. Coleman-Lands was the #38 recruit in the 2015 RSCI, and one spot ahead of him was Malik Beasley. Beasley is in his 6th season in the NBA. That’s just wild!

Among the established scorers or high-major contributors who have entered recently are:

• Marcus Williams, Wyoming (6’2” Fr G, 14.9ppg)

• R.J. Eytle-Rock, UMBC (6’4” Jr G, 14.3ppg)

• Charlie Moore, DePaul (5’11” Sr G, 14.4ppg)

• Daejon Davis, Stanford (6’3” Sr G, 11.2ppg)

• Meikkel Murray, Central Michigan (6’6” Jr G, 15.6ppg)

• Zach Cooks, NJIT (5’10” Sr G, 17.1ppg)

• K.J. Walton, Ball State (6’3” Sr G, 16ppg)

• Kyler Edwards, Texas Tech (6’4” Jr G, 10.2ppg)

• Mac McClung, Texas Tech (6’2” Jr G, 16.1ppg)

• Jalen Coleman-Lands, Iowa State (6’4” Sr G, 14.3ppg)

• Michael Green, Bryant (5’11” So G, 16.7ppg)

• Garrison Brooks, UNC (6’9” Sr F, 10.6ppg)

• Bryce Hamilton, UNLV (6’4” Jr G, 18ppg)

As has been the case for the past few weeks, most of the impact players are guards. If you’re a high-major program looking to restock your backcourt, you’ve got quite a few good options. Louisville came into this offseason needing an influx of backcourt talent, as has taken in two transfers in Jarrod West and Noah Locke. What should UofL fans know about them and what kind of impact they can make next year?

Jarrod West

Jarrod West was a 4 year starter at Marshall in the backcourt and is that program’s all-time steals leader. West began his Marshall career as a low-usage outside shooter. During his freshman and sophomore years, he took about 12% of the shots when he was on the court (per KenPom), a very low rate. Roughly 70% of his shots were from three, and he hit about 37%; however, he struggled inside the arc during his sophomore year and hit just 30% of his twos that season. His assist rates were pedestrian, he didn’t get to the foul line much, and he turned it over more than you’d expect from a player who mostly shot threes. Other than a very strong steal rate, nothing much marked him for success.

Over his junior and senior years West transformed, however. He became much more of a playmaker, as his assist rate jumped to something more typical of a point guard, while his turnover rates declined. West diversified his offensive game and began taking as many twos as threes, and sharply improved his FG% at the rim and on jumpers during his senior year. West maintained his marksmanship from three, hitting roughly 38% over the last 2 seasons while increasing his usage rate above 20%. West also maintained his strong steal rates.

As a freshman and sophomore, West was largely used as a spot-up player, but he actually ran more than twice as much pick and roll than spot ups over his junior and senior years. He even rated in the 77th percentile in scorers running the pick and roll as a senior. This is good news for UofL fans, because last season both Carlik Jones and David Johnson ran more than 2x as much pick and roll as any other action, and West actually scored more effectively in that action that either Jones or Johnson. Per Synergy, West was just as effective as a scorer in pick and roll as a distrubutor, ranking in the 70th percentile or better in both roles. West absolutely has experience and success in the type of role that UofL likes their lead guards to play.

UofL fans should not expect a Carlik Jones-level impact, but West should be an above average contributor for Louisville next season. I’d expect West to be a consistent 3 point weapon, a possible double-digit scorer, and probably the second leading assister on the team behind El Ellis. I wouldn’t be surprised to see West put up something like 10-11ppg, 3-4apg, with 38-40% shooting from three and 50% shooting on twos. In this case, he would largely fill the statistical impact left behind by David Johnson, with more efficiency and lower turnovers. West isn’t the same player as Johnson, but can have a similar effect as a secondary playmaker and scorer.

Noah Locke

Cardinals fans who were starved to see their team hit some threes last season must be salivating at the thought of a pure shooter like Locke joining the team. Locke has 3 seasons of experience as a 40% 3 point shooter in a high-major conference. He’s done this on a high volume of shots, averaging 6 3PA per game consistently through 3 seasons. Locke will need dynamic playmakers to play off of, as roughly 94% of his three point baskets have been assisted during his career; by comparison, Ryan McMahon was assisted on about 85% of his makes during his career. Locke also has been basically just a spot-up shooter in halfcourt offense. Last season he had 120 spot-up opportunities, easily his most common action. The second most common halfcourt action he ran was as a pick and roll ballhandler with 42 opportunities, and Locke graded only in the 29th percentile running this action. He had similar numbers as a sophomore as well.

Locke didn’t show much evolution as a player at Florida. As a freshman he was a high-volume and accurate 3 point shooter who rarely did anything but shoot. He collected very few assists or turnovers, and only about 5% of his shots came at the rim. Locke didn’t rebound well, his steal rates were below average, and he rarely got to the line. More importantly, none of this changed at all during his 3 years. That may be due to the coaching staff, but other Gator guards evolved into larger roles while Locke was there. Tre Mann was a backup as a freshman and largely ineffective, with poor shooting and assist numbers. As a sophomore he blossomed into a dynamic point guard and NBA prospect. Tyree Appleby transferred in from Cleveland State and became a second dynamic playmaker in the backcourt. Locke was a starter since his freshman year and seemed largely unable to take on any larger role.

If Louisville has Carlik Jones and El Ellis on the roster next season, they will have the playmakers to take advantage of Locke’s shooting. I am not certain that Locke can handle the secondary playmaker role that Mack likes to use, however. In every season he’s coached, Chris Mack has started 2 players who filled a playmaker role. Usually those players are guards, those he occasionally will use a dynamic wing or big who can rack up assists. Mack has never started a guard who had assist rates as low as Locke has put up in his career; even Ryan McMahon averaged 2x as many assists per game as Locke has in his career. That leads me to believe Locke will play in 3 guard lineups alongside 2 playmakers, but that means that Louisville won’t be able to play lineups with Williamson, Davis, or Cross at SF alongside Withers and Malik Williams. I just don’t see how Locke fits into the type of lineups Chris Mack prefers, and don’t see how Louisville gets their best 5 on the floor consistently if Noah Locke is playing major minutes. I think it’s more likely that Locke plays 12-15 minutes per game a a backup wing to give Louisville a jolt of offense of the bench. It’s basically the role Josh Nickelberry was earmarked for this year, before his shot deserted him. I am confident Locke will shoot well from three, but I don’t know that he’ll do enough of anything else to get more time. Between Ellis, West, Matt Cross, and stretch bigs Jae’lyn Withers and JJ Traynor, UofL should have much more shooting than last year and a one-dimensional player like Locke will be a luxury, not a necessity.

I may be completely wrong on my assessment; it’s happened before, and it’s worth noting that Bart Torvik’s early projection for next year has Locke earmarked for a major role and West as a bench player. Based on the evidence from their careers so far and the roles Mack tends to use, I’d expect those to be flipped. Regardless, Louisville has upgraded their talent level for next season and should be an ACC contender.