Key stats and predictions for UofL
I examine some numbers that may have an outsized impact on UofL's season, and make some predictions on over/under targets
Before he even takes the court for his first official game as a head coach, Kenny Payne has largely succeeded in one key area: washing off the stench of last season’s Cardinal basketball season. The vibes around the program are largely good and there’s little hangover from last season’s disappointment. A new chapter in Louisville basketball has begun, and the next page begins with the actual season. Nobody knows what to expect when actual games start and that’s both exciting and terrifying.
Payne is going to put his stamp on the team’s playing style, but given that he’s never been a head coach I don’t know what that will look like. However, we do know some things about these Cards:
They have a lot of length, especially on the wings
There are a lot of bigs
There’s one experienced lead ballhandler
Given that and the uncertainty of having almost no players with significant D-1 track records, there’s a very wide range of outcomes this season for Louisville. Those outcomes will largely be determined by where the Cards show improvement and how they avoid declines in a few key areas. One of my favorite things to do is trying to identify some stats that I think will be key indicators, and project an over/under target. I did this last season, which is a nice reminder of exactly how far off I was on my expectations. This season I’m doing it again, and making a prediction on each key stat based on program vibes and my gut. Check them out below, and see if you agree…
What’s likely to improve
With the increased length (especially on the wing) plus the track record of some of the key players, Louisville has a couple areas I expect to see some improvement this season.
Defensive rebounding %: Over/under 75.5%
The case for the over: UofL ranked 54th nationally at 75.2% last season per KenPom, which was the program’s highest rate in the KenPom era. Wing length correlates positively with defensive rebounding, as I recently wrote about. Returnees Jaelyn Withers, Sydney Curry, and Roosevelt Wheeler all had strong defensive rebound rates last season.
The case for the under: It seems fair to assume that Payne’s two biggest coaching style influences will be Denny Crum and John Calipari, and neither one is know for strong defensive rebounding teams. 75.5% would put UofL in the top 50 nationally, and only UNC and Clemson ranked that highly in defensive rebounding among ACC teams last season.
The vibes say….Over. I think defensive rebounding will be one of the biggest strengths of the Cards this season, and is an area where focus and effort combined with length can yield immediate results.
3 point FG%: Over/under 35%
The case for the over: The main perimeter weapons will likely be El Ellis, Mike James, and Devin Ree, and all 3 have a track record of strong shooting. Ellis hit 36% last season and 40% in JUCO; James hit 43% in his HS career; Ree hit 46% at Oak Hill last season. Those guys will likely all play and will be the main candidates to take 3 point shots. If they combine for about 9 3PA per game (about the normal volume for the top 3 outside shooters), that should offset lesser shooting elsewhere.
The case for the under: James and Ree have never taken a three in college and may hit well under 40%. Withers and Kamari Lands are likely to play on the perimeter and neither has a track record of hitting >25% from deep. It’s unclear if UofL can create open catch-and-shoot opportunities with a lack of proven ballhandlers.
The vibes say… Under. Last season I set the target at 37% and the Cards hit 31%. Most of those players are gone, but I don’t think this UofL team will be great at creating open shots for each other.
What’s likely to be challenging
UofL’s turnover rate: Over/under 19.0%
The case for the over: Last season UofL was at 18%, the highest rate for the Cards in a decade. The team didn’t exactly add any ballhandling prowess. Wing length tends to correlate negatively with turnover rate, as taller players usually have sloppier handles. Curry, Withers, and Brandon Huntley-Hatfield were all very turnover prone last season and figure to be significant pieces.
The case for the under: Only 2 ACC teams were above 19% last season (Wake Forest and Pittsburgh), and several ACC teams with length were well below 19% (Florida St, Duke, Syracuse). El Ellis wasn’t very turnover prone last season himself and he’ll be doing the heavy lifting at point guard.
The vibes say… Under, but mostly because 19% is a really high rate. Louisville will likely not be good at taking care of the ball this season, but above 19% would represent a disaster. If the offense really falls apart, this is a likely reason why.
El Ellis minutes per game: Over/under 35
The case for the over: There is no one else on the roster who is likely to be an ACC-level point guard, so there may not be alternatives to heavy minutes for Ellis. This minutes load isn’t very rare in the ACC, as 62 guards have exceeded this level in the ACC in the last 13 years (about 5 per season). 4 guards played this much last year (Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman at Virginia, Buddy Boeheim at Syracuse, Dereon Seabron at NC State). While Payne was at Kentucky, 3 guards exceeded 35 mpg and each time there were no viable backups.
The case for the under: Louisville staff may not want to risk Ellis’ health to squeeze a few extra minutes in what may not be a very promising season. KenPom projects UofL to win or lose by 10+ points in 6 of the first 10 games, so we’ll see quickly if the staff is willing to get Ellis more rest in less competitive games. Ellis himself only played 35+ minutes 7 times in 33 JUCO games (1 was triple OT) and never played 35 minutes last season, so he’s not seen that level of workload much.
The vibes say… Under, but barely. I think the staff will want to avoid the optics of running Ellis into the ground and will try to keep him around 32-34 minutes, with some combo of Fabio Basili, Hercy Miller, and Kamari Lands needing to prove they can be competent.
The end result
Louisville’s season-ending KenPom rank: Over/under 80
The case for the over (worse than 80th): The Cards finished last season at #127, and are #91 in KenPom’s preseason rankings. BartTorvik.com has them at #102 pre-season. While the vibes around the program are better, it’s unclear that the talent level is improved over last season. Kenny Payne has no track record as a head coach, so improvement may not come until year 2 or later.
The case for the under (better than 80th): Over the summer I wrote about power conference programs with coaching changes after major declines, and spotlighted 5 teams form the past 6 seasons. 4 of the 5 improved dramatically over their preseason KenPom expectations:
2017 Oklahoma State was 60th preseason and finished 22nd
2018 Missouri was 81st preseason and finished 40th
2020 UCLA was 106th preseason and finished 78th
2022 Iowa was 113th preseason and finished 43rd
The vibes say….Under (better than 80th). I don’t know the exact details of KenPom’s ranking algorithm, but it doesn’t seem to build in improvements after coaching changes. An NCAA bid is unlikely, but exceeding modest expectations seems reasonable.