Kenny Payne lands his first player
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield is an intriguing transfer who was rated highly out of high school. What does he bring to the Cards?
As Thunder over Louisville kicked off the 2022 Derby Festival, the commitment of Brandon Huntley-Hatfield kicked off the Kenny Payne era as the first newcomer since Payne’s hiring. On paper he seems like a major addition, as the #23 rated recruit by RSCI in the class of 2021. He definitely upgrades the talent level on the team, although I do have some questions about fit with the few other roster pieces in place. Regardless, it’s a nice first step to establishing some recruiting momentum and upgrading the talent level to ensure something like last season never happens again. In this article, I’ll take a look at what we know about BHH from last season and what he might bring to the Cardinals next season.
A disappointing debut season, but reason for optimism
As I mentioned above, BHH was a highly rated recruit in his class. However, he struggled much of the year to make a major impact on a very good (and veteran-heavy) Tennessee team. He ended up as the 4th or 5th player in the frontcourt rotation, averaging 12.5mpg. There’s not a lot to point to that he established as a strength, as he had just a 47% effective FG% with solid but unspectacular rebounding and block rates. He was a solid finisher at the rim, converting 66% there, but hit just 30% from midrange and 2 for 13 on threes. He had just 11 assists vs 32 turnovers, and hit 59% from the free throw line.
However, a disappointing freshman season is not completely unheard of for athletic forwards/centers with strong recruit pedigrees. Per Bart Torvik’s website, the list of comps for Hatfield’s freshman season is littered with players who came in with similar promise, had unspectacular debuts, but improved greatly to be major conference contributors and even standouts in short order. Several developed more playmaking chops or an outside shot (Markieff Morris, Adreian Payne, Isaiah Mobley, Keion Brooks), and were important pieces on very good teams. Some stagnated (Wally Judge, Joel James, EJ Montgomery) and added very little beyond their freshman year. A significant number developed at least into above-average offensive players, with a single common thread: they improved into elite rim finishers. Most of the similar players to BHH went from being solid finishers at the rim (60-65%) to being elite there (70%+) as they learned how to leverage their athleticism and size. Along with this improved finishing and aggressiveness at the rim, these players tended to draw free throws at higher rates as well.
Huntley-Hatfield is likely to emerge next season as an athletic finisher in the paint for the Cards as well as a solid defender. Nothing he did last year indicates he’ll be a shooting threat, but stranger things have happened. Given this profile, I do have some concerns about his fit with the roster pieces already in place…
Overlap among skill sets
In Huntley-Hatfield, Louisville landed an athletic forward/center who it at his best operating around the basket and can contribute defensively. However, they already had a player who fit that description in Jae’lyn Withers. In fact, the two players had very similar seasons last year:
BHH: 46.5% eFG%, 66% FG% at the rim, 15% 3pt Fg%, 12.4 pts/40 min, 9.4 reb/40 min, 1 assist for every 3 turnovers
Withers: 45.8% eFG%, 66% FG% at the rim, 23% 3pt FG%, 12.7 pts/40 min, 10.0 reb/40 min, 1 assist for every 3 turnovers
On the positive side, Louisville can have an athletic power forward on the court for all 40 minutes and play some lineups with both players together. On the less positive side, it feels like these two have highly redundant and not at all complementary skill sets. It seems more likely to me that one of these players will emerge as the starting power forward and the other will have a much smaller role.
Beyond their own overlap, I do have some concern about how either player fits alongside Sydney Curry. When including Curry, Louisville has 3 players who can score around the basket but bring very little shooting or playmaking. All three are best when either posting up or rolling to the basket, but it feels like the paint will be very crowded if two are playing together. Louisville should be a good offensive rebounding team with this frontcourt rotation, but some or all of these players will struggle to get the kind of space they need to operate most effectively.
Obviously Louisville doesn’t have to play these players together, but that would mean at least one of these three will have a very small role on the team. That’s not the worst thing in the world as competition for positions should ensure that whoever plays actually earned it, but when you only have 8 players currently on your roster and 3 of them are this redundant it gives you less margin for error when filling out the other positions. So what else does UofL need?
A glaring need for backcourt help
Louisville still has a huge need for help in the backcourt. In my last article I mentioned some backcourt names of interest, but among those only Grant Sherfield and Antoine Davis remain available and neither player has Louisville in the list of schools they are considering. Kenny Payne likes to keep things quiet on the recruiting front (on all fronts, really) but I haven’t seen Louisville mentioned with any other available players who could fill the bill.
It does seem very likely that Louisville lands recruit Devin Ree, who can fill in at 2 guard and bring some shooting, but the only ballhandler of any real renown on the roster is El Ellis. Maybe his playmaking was hampered by the toxic environment last season, but his assist:turnover ratio was well below what you’d expect from a major conference lead guard. Some names that might make sense are the aforementioned Grant Sherfield, Charlotte’s Jahmir Young, Iowa State’s Tyrese Hunter, UTEP’s Souley Boum, or even Clemson’s Al-Amir Dawes. More names of interest will surely enter the portal as well, but Louisville needs to make some significant addiitons to have an ACC-caliber backcourt next season.