Is JJ Traynor the greatest basketball player alive?
Louisville has been dominant when he plays and average when he sits in each of the first 4 games. What is going on?
You wouldn’t think the greatest college basketball player would only play 19 minutes per game. You wouldn’t think he would average 7.3 points and 4.0 rebounds, and have zero assists, blocks, or steals in 4 games. But then again, you probably wouldn’t think JJ Traynor had a case as the greatest college basketball player unless you were paying really close attention.
This season, Louisville has played 246 non-garbage time possessions in 4 games and outscored their opponents by 70 points. JJ Traynor has been on the court for literally every paty of those 70 points; Louisville has actually outscored their opponents by 76 points when he plays, and been outscored by 6 points when he sits. It’s even better when you adjust for opponent strength; UofL has an adjusted margin of +53 points per 100 possessions with him in and -8 per 100 with him out. The best teams in college basketball are around +30 per 100, and -8 per 100 would be equivalent to the 250th best team. Is JJ Traynor single-handedly the difference between Louisville being the best college team ever or being the worst major conference team of all time?
No. No, he certainly is not. There are a lot of reasons people don’t trust on/off court stats, and Louisville’s discrepancy with JJ Traynor should make it pretty clear that those stats aren’t sufficient by themselves to tell the story of a player’s impact. They are an interesting starting point, however, and in this edition of Hoops Insight I’m going to look at why Louisville is so much better with JJ Traynor in the game.
The magnitude of the positive impact is staggering and consistent
JJ Traynor’s impact has not been limited to any game, it’s been consistent for 4 games now:
Vs Evansville, UofL was +34 in 32 poss with Traynor and +1 in 33 poss without
Vs Seton Hall, UofL was +14 in 29 poss with Traynor and -13 in 42 poss without
Vs Prairie View, UofL was +13 in 30 poss with Traynor and +9 in 39 poss without
vs WKU, UofL was +21 in 49 poss with Traynor and +0 in 21 poss without
Traynor’s incredible plus/minus impact has not been limited to specific frontcourt partners, either. His 3 most common lineups have featured different frontcourt duos with him, and all have been lights out:
+29 in 36 poss with Jones/Johnson/Davis/Withers
+29 in 22 poss with Jones/Williamson/Davis/Slazinski
+11 in 19 poss with Jones/Johnson/Withers/Slazinski
When Louisville gives lineups with JJ Traynor consistent time in a game, they are very likely to dominate the opponent, but lineups without Traynor have struggled to do so. There have been 6 occasions when lineups with JJ Traynor played 5 or more possessions together in one game, and they are +51 in 84 possessions. There have been 8 occasions when lineups without JJ Traynor played 5 or more possessions together in one game, and they are -3 in 98 possessions. The best +/- by any non-Traynor lineup was a +7 in 13 possessions against Seton Hall, and no other non-Traynor lineup has outscored opponents by more than 3 points in a game. Lineups with Traynor have posted a +24 in 20 poss, +20 in 26, and +9 in 10.
On 4 of the 6 occasions the lineup had a positive plus/minus; the 2 exceptions were, oddly enough, the only times Traynor and Aidan Igiehon played together consistently. Igiehon is the only teammate with whom Traynor has a negative plus/minus, although they have played very little together.
So, this isn’t just the result one one great game, or one great partnership. It’s also overwhelming how Louisville has almost no good lineups without Traynor and no bad ones with him. But what exactly is making the difference?
What is consistently improving, and how is Traynor impacting it?
As you’d expect by the magnitude of the plus/minus difference, Louisville has been better in a lot of ways when Traynor has played. With Traynor in, Louisville has:
Better 2 point and 3 point shooting percentage
Lower turnover rate
Better offensive and defensive rebounding
Lower opponent 3 point shooting percentage
Lower opponent free throw shooting percentage
When we try to determine how Traynor might be helping UofL, we can start by eliminating that last factor. I’m pretty certain that JJ Traynor’s presence on the court doesn’t cause opponents to hit 53% of free throws instead of 73%. But what about the others?
The offensive rebounding is the next thing we’ll scratch off the list. Louisville was better with Traynor in against Seton Hall and WKU, but worse with him in against Evansville and Prairie View. They’re better for the season on balance with him in, but it hasn’t been consistent. we won’t give him credit for that. Louisville’s improved turnover rate has the same issue; it was better the first two games with Traynor in but worse the last two. Sorry, JJ, you probably aren’t preventing turnovers.
That leaves 4 stats that Traynor maybe consistently impacting: 2 point FG%, 3 point fg%, defensive rebound rate, and opponent 3pt FG%.
Opponent 3pt FG% is next for us to scratch off our list. Traynor has rarely been anywhere near the shooters who are missing for opponents, and watching the film it’s pretty clear that there’s just some randomness happening. At the very least, Traynor is not an all-world defender who frees up Louisville’s perimeter players to close out on shooters or something. That’s off our list.
It’s also unlikely that JJ Traynor makes Louisville a better 3 point shooting team by himself. He is only 1-2 on the season, so he’s not inflating their percentages by taking and making a bunch. The big difference is Dre Davis and Carlik Jones combining to hit 8-13 when Traynor plays and 2-8 when he doesn’t. After watching film of these shots, there’s nothing Traynor is clearly doing on the court to help them. I don’t think we can give JJ credit for his teammates 3 point shooting.
Defensive rebounding is an interesting one. Traynor himself is actually not much of a defensive rebounder. He has the 5th highest defensive rebound rate on the team, and he’s behind Carlik Jones and Samuel Williamson. However, Traynor does show a willingness to box out, and he may be helping clear out defenders so his teammates can grab a few extra rebounds. However, the difference has not been that big. Louisville collects 75% of available defensive rebounds when Traynor plays and 69% when he sits. 75% is not a great defensibve rebound rate, and 69% is not disastrous. The difference is about 6 total rebounds across the 4 games. While these did end opponent possessions without a score, they probably saved about 5 points given the rate at which UofL opponents have scored. That’s nice, but it’s a small part of the 82 point margin by which UofL has improved with Traynor in,
That leaves 2 point shooting by Louisville. Is Traynor making Louisville a better scoring team inside the arc?
Clear areas of impact, but unclear cause
Traynor himself has been a good 2 point shooter. He is 10-15 on 2 pointers this season, good for 67%. He shoots a little less frequently than average, taking 17% of UofL’s shots when he plays, but that’s not nothing. However, shooting 67% on below average volume is not enough to dramatically improve a team’s shooting. Something else is happening.
When I look at data on where Louisville shoots from, some clear patterns emerge with Traynor in. Louisville’s guards hit a higher percentage of shots in the paint with Traynor in; they’re 18-20 (90%) when he plays and 12-20 (60%) when he sits. You could argue that he spaces the floor to clear the lane, but watching the film I don’t see much evidence of that. The guards are just finishing more often by chance when Traynor plays.
The UofL forwards and bigs also improve their accuracy with Traynor in, but from midrange, hitting 4-6 with Traynor in and just 1-7 with him out. This has almost nothing to do with Traynor, however. He is just 0-1 from midrange. Again, it’s just some randomness and circumstances likely unrelated to Traynor’s presence.
Louisville’s forwards and bigs do take a little higher quality shots with Traynor in, though. They take 83% of their shots in the paint with him in, vs 75% with him out. Traynor is certainly helping this number, as he has taken 14 of his 15 2 pointers in the paint; the other forwards and bigs take about 75% of their shots in the paint regardless of whether Traynor is in the game. Traynor does help Louisville take more of their shots in the paint, but the overall impact is pretty small. It’s a shift of about 2 total shots from midrange to the paint over the 4 games. Louisville hits about 50% more of their shots in the paint vs midrange, so the difference is about 2 total points.
The plus/minus difference with JJ Traynor on the court for Louisville this season has been immense. Nearly every winning stretch of basketball they have played has come with him out there. However, when we take an indepth look at how and why they are playing so well, very little of it seems attributable to Traynor. I gave him credit for better defensive rebounding and more frequent paint offense, and that amounts to about 7 total points of improvement. The other 75 points of plus/minus improvement with him on the court is the result of circumstances that seem to be beyond his control. JJ Traynor may end up being a valuable piece for Louisville, but I don’t think he’s the most valuable player in college basketball like his on/off court impact suggests. However, he’s certainly not hurting the Cards, and as a relatively unheralded freshman that’s not an easy bar to clear. The Cards have started the season well despite heavy injuries and JJ Traynor is one of the reasons why…just probably not the only reason.
Great article!