How do the Cards match up in the ACC?
In a year without a dominant team in conference, can Louisville surpass expectations and challenge for the crown? I look at the matchups and come up with an answer.
In the preseason ACC rankings, Louisville was picked to finished 5th in the league. 2 out of the 155 voters picked the Cards to finish first. As we sit in mid-January, however, at least 1 ACC blog has the Cards neck-and-neck with fellow surprise Clemson as the class of the league. UofL seems on their way to exceeding expectations this season, and talk of an ACC regular season or tournament championship now seems reasonable. That begs the question then, how does Louisville match up with other ACC contenders? In this edition of Hoops Insight I focused on what the biggest obstacles might be as Louisville aims for an ACC title.
A creative backcourt and solid defensive scheme
First, we should discuss the strengths and weaknesses of this UofL team. Those will likely be the most impactful factors in discussing matchups.
The strengths start with the backcourt of Carlik Jones and David Johnson. Both players are excellent playmakers, and both can score at the rim or from deep. They are each hitting more than 40% of their threes and more than 60% of their shots at the rim. Their scoring and playmaking skills have led Louisville to be rated Very Good or Excellent by Synergy on pick and rolls, cuts, and in transition. While Louisville doesn’t get out in transition much (222nd in % of shots taken there per hoop-math.com) they are very effective at it, ranking 24th in transition effective FG% (3rd among power conference schools). Similarly, while Louisville doesn’t get to the rim a lot (202nd in % of shots there) they are very good at finishing there (42nd in FG% there). Another standout for Louisville is Jae’lyn Withers, who has an Excellent offensive rating per Synergy largely on his ability to score as a roll man or cutter. Withers hits 74% of his shots around the rim, the highest on the team among the regular rotation.
On defense, UofL is graded as Excellent by Synergy at defending spot up shooters and post ups. Most of Louisville’s wings and bigs are rangy, quick, and athletic, so they can cover ground and help. The pack-line defense also offers some schematic advantages here, as Chris Mack’s Xavier teams were consistently graded as Excellent in defending post-ups. The Cardinals challenge 2 point jumpers especially well, ranking 12th in opponent FG% on these shots. Louisville also ranks 12th in limiting opponent shots in transition, allowing just over 19% of opponent shots to come there.
Louisville does have some weaknesses that have crept up this season. Despite the shooting prowess of Jones and Johnson, the team overall is hitting just 34% from outside. Besides Jones and Johnson, 4 other Cards have taken at least 10 attempts from deep: Dre Davis, Quinn Slazinski, Samuell Williamson, and Josh Nickelberry. None has hit more than 33%, and only Nickelberry is above 27%. Synergy rates Louisville as Below Average on spot up shots, indicating that they are not making the best use of Jones and Johnson’s ability to find open shooters. Jones and Johnson also rate poorly as isolation scorers, ranking in the 7th and 6th percentile in points per possession on these plays. Both struggle to score, with Jones shooting 16% and Johnson 22% when running iso. Fortunately, Louisville rarely runs these sets, but that causes some weakness late in the shot clock when they have to create. Jones & Johnson are shooting a combined 10-34 on twos late in the shot clock.
On defense, Louisville’s scheme masks some individual weaknesses. First, the team does not really have standout perimeter defenders. Only Dre Davis is rated highly by Synergy, and Johnson and Jones both struggle to defend pick and roll ballhandlers. This defensive weakness shows up most clearly when Louisville defends in transition, where they are 297th in opponent eFG%. Louisville also does not have strong rim protectors, as they rank 227th nationally in block rate. While Louisville’s scheme limits shots at the rim (36th fewest opponent shots there) teams finish when they get there (258th in opponent FG% at the rim). A healthy Malik Williams may not help this much either; his block rate last year was only 4% (8-10% is very good), and his best rating per Synergy were in defending spot ups and isolations.
Two very tough defensive teams among ACC contenders
Looking at the strengths and weaknesses I laid out above, I think tough matchups for UofL would be teams that:
Defend pick and roll ballhandlers very well with 2 strong perimeter defenders
Make opponents take shots late in the clock
Have guards who can get to the rim and finish
Are strong at offensive rebounding to get shots at the rim
Don’t try to post up a lot
Like to get out in transition
Teams with multiple strong perimeter defenders may be able to contain Jones/Johnson, forcing Louisville’s outside shooters to be a major factor. The Cardinal defensive scheme will probably limit the effectiveness of post-ups, but if teams have guards who get to the rim or bigs who feast on offensive rebounds, they could get easy baskets. Louisville does a good job of limiting transition shots, but teams who force the issue may be able to score in the open court.
So, are there any ACC teams like this? Let’s look at the key contenders:
1) Virginia
The Cavaliers are leading the ACC at 4-0 and are the highest rated KenPom team in the conference at 15th. They are in the 87th percentile defending pick and roll ballhandlers, with 4 players rated Good or better. They force more late clock shots than anyone in the country, with the longest average defensive possession per KenPom. Despite standing just 5’9” and 160 lbs, their point guard Kihei Clark actually gets to the rim often and finishes there just as well as Louisville’s guards. The Cavaliers don’t get many offensive rebounds but are above average at scoring off of the ones they get. They actually post up a fair amount and take the 10th fewest transition shots in the country.
Verdict: The Cavaliers will probably gum up Louisville’s offense, but will need to be hot from deep or have Kihei Clark take over to score themselves. Overall, likely to be a very tough matchup for UofL.
2) Clemson
The Tigers have been a surprise, picked to finish 10th but currently 17th in KenPom, the 2nd highest of any ACC team. The Tigers get it done with defense, ranking #1 in defensive efficiency per KenPom. They have several strong perimeter defenders in Nick Honor, Clyde Trapp, and John Newman, although starting guard Al-Amir Dawes is not great on the ball. They also make opponents work the clock, ranking 309th in defensive possession length, although they give up more good looks late than most other elite defenses. Clemson is elite at defending in transition, with the 9th lowest opponent FG% there. However, they don’t get in transition much themselves, ranking 309th in percentage of shots taken there. The Tiger guards do most of their damage on the perimeter, as they don’t get to the rim a ton and don’t finish particularly well there. Their star forward, Aamir Sims, is a great finisher around the rim who does a lot of damage on offensive rebounds.
Verdict: This will be an ugly game on March 3rd. If Malik Williams is healthy he would be a good matchup to slow down Simms. Not as bad of a matchup as Virginia due to the lack of playmaking guards, but stylistically a bad matchup.
3) Duke
Somehow ranked 23rd in KenPom despite losing to each of the 3 quality teams on their schedule. Rated in the 95th percentile defending pick and roll ballhandlers per Synergy, but that is due to strong play from their forwards; starting PG Jeremy Roach rates only as Average. Not defending very well late in the shot clock this season, with opponents shooting just as well then as early, and they don’t force long possessions much. Roach has had success getting to the rim this season, but almost nobody else on the team has. Main strength has been creating steals on pick and roll and cutting action by jumping passing lanes. Only 117th in % of shots in transition, and rated as Poor in scoring off of offensive rebounds.
Verdict: Will probably pick off some steals from David Johnson passes, but not particularly strong on defense or offense otherwise. A good matchup for Louisville.
4) North Carolina
A year after a nightmare season, things have stablized and the Tar Heels are 31st in KenPom rankings. Their strength on defense is limiting pick and roll, with their top 5 perimeter players all rated Good or better per Synergy. Playing at a slower tempo this season and making opponents work more into the shot clock (244th in def possessions length) and forcing lots of midrange jumpers late. Guards are poor at getting to the rim and finishing there, especially Caleb Love (33% Fg% at the rim) and Leaky Black (44%). Offense has been ugly (20th percentile), but offensive rebounding is a bright spot (73rd) as it tends to be under Roy Williams. Like to get out in transition (50th highest % of shots there) but not good at finishing (268th). Offense features a lot of post ups.
Verdict: Their defense will likely cause some issues, but I don’t believe their offense can score against Louisville. A good matchup unless something bizarre happens.
5) Florida State
After an ACC title last season, Florida State had to replace most of their starters. Really struggling on D against ballhandlers, ranking in the 8th percentile against pick and roll. Poor at defending late in shot clock, as they give up a higher FG% late in the clock than normal halfcourt offense. Lots of length (no starters under 6’5”, PG is 6’8”) and guards can get to rim and finish. Good offensive rebounding team who can score well on putbacks. Very few post ups. Middle of the pack in frequency of getting out in transition. Good at defending around the rim and shot blocking.
Verdict: Johnson and Jones should be able to break down this defense. The key is going to be UofL’s spot up shooters, who will likely get open looks. FSU height will be able to score, but Louisville should be able to do enough on offense. A pretty good matchup for UofL.
Louisville’s schedule is back-loaded, finishing with consecutive games at Duke, at Clemson, and home vs Virginia. It is very possible that UofL is in first place in the league heading into those final two games, as their toughest game before that is at Virginia. I believe Louisville will have their shot to win an ACC regular season title in those last 2 games, but the matchups are very tough. The Cards will need their shooters to find their groove before then, but if they do then great things may be in store.