How concerned should UofL fans be?
There are a few worrying trends coming out of a completely flat loss against UNC. Which ones should concern UofL fans the most?
Louisville has had a disturbing trend of laying a complete egg in some games this season. Two horrendous losses by a combined 82 points to Wisconsin and North Carolina have shown the Cardinals at their worst. A loss to Florida State (down 19 before making up 6 points in garbage time) wasn’t much better. However, the Cards have shown an ability to bounce back quickly. The Wisconsin loss was followed by 5 straight wins, and the Florida State loss was followed by a win against Duke. Now that the team has done it again, what should UofL fans make of this performance? In this edition of Hoops Insight I’m going to look at what trends are heading the wrong way, and how worried UofL fans should be about them.
Trend #1: UofL is struggling to hit from deep
Over the past 6 games, UofL has broken 25% from three point range only twice. The capper was an ugly 1-16 performance against UNC. Over that time, a litany of Cardinals have been laying bricks from deep. Carlik Jones (4-22), Samuell Williamson (2-12), Josh Nickelberry (1-11) and Quinn Slazinski (1-11) have been the biggest offendors; only David Johnson (11-33) had shot an acceptable percentage in that time.
It’s not fun to see these kinds of struggles, but I don’t think Louisville fans should be overly worried about this cold stretch. In the opening 10 games the Cards were at 35% or better from deep 7 times, with Jones/Johnson/Williamson combining to hit 43% from deep. While Jones and Williamson have hit a rough patch, that hasn’t extended to their midrange shots. They have combined to hit 39% (24-52) of their two pointers outside the paint in the last 6 games, a massive step up from their 17% (12-72) from that range in the opening 10 games. Their shooting ability is still there, and it is likely to show up again.
Trend #2: UofL can’t defend two pointers
Louisville allowed UNC to hit 67% of their two pointers, the second time in 3 games an opponent has hit that rate (Clemson). In the last 9 games, Georgia Tech is the only opponent to hit less than 50% of their twos against Louisville. In the other 8 games since the calendar turned to 2021, Louisville opponents are hitting 58% of their twos.
The issue isn’t a preponderance of turnovers and easy baskets. Louisville actually has a lower turnover rate (17% of possessions) over these games than their season average (18%). Opponents aren’t getting more transition shots, as only 26% of their shots are coming within 10 seconds of possessions; this is lower than the season average of 28%. Opponents also aren’t getting into the paint more; they take 26% of their shots in the paint vs 36% earlier in the season.
The biggest issue is opponents have become lethal from the midrange. Prior to Jan 2, UofL opponents took 27% of their shots from the midrange (2 pointers outside the paint) and hit just 15% of those attempts. Since Jan 2, opponents are taking about the same percentage of shots from midrange (28%) but everyone but Georgia Tech has combined to hit 48% of these shots. That type of accuracy is getting to the point where a midrange shot is actually productive for the offense as opposed to a win for the defense.
I went back and watched film of some of opponent’s possessions where they took midrange shots, and two things jump out. First is that Louisville’s post players are vulnerable to getting backed down from outside the paint; Clemson’s Aamir Simms feasted on hook shots from outside the paint by backing defenders down, for example. The second is that there is very little impactful help defense and rotation to contest midrange jumpers. Teams have been able to run pick and roll and move the ball without getting much pressure.
I think this is actually a pretty problematic trend. Louisville can’t really fix their lack of length and bulk. They have had problems contesting shots all over the court, and it shows up in a lack of blocked shots. Over the 8 game stretch referenced above, Louisville has a total of 13 blocked shots. 5 of these came in 1 game (Wake Forest), and 4 were from perimeter players. Louisville’s frontcourt and wings haven’t been much of a deterrent lately as opponents get open midrange jumpers. When these shots are contested, they are hit somewhere around 30% of the time and are a win for the defense. When they are largely open or lightly contested, opponents can hit 40-45% and make these more productive. Malik Williams’ length may be able to help somewhat, but Louisville just doesn’t have a roster built to rotate aggressively and contest jumpers.
Trend #3: Louisville isn’t drawing free throws
Drawing free throws is the most efficient form of offense. The worst free throw shooting team is usually still better than the best field goal shooting team, so shooting free throws instead of field goals is a great idea for any team. Chris Mack’s Xavier teams capitalized on this and ranked in the top 76 in free throw rate (FTA per FGA) 7 times in 9 seasons.
This hasn’t carried over so far at Louisville however. The Cards have been 115th, 193rd, and now 128th in free throw rate under Mack. They have drawn about 1 free throw for every 3 field goals, and since Jan 2 that’s dropped even further to 3 FTA per 10 FGA. Over the last 3 games, it’s dropped below 1 FTA per 4 FGA. That puts more pressure on Louisville’s shooting, and has led to UofL’s two worst offensive games of the season (in terms of points per possession) against Clemson and UNC.
The more that I look into the context, however, the less concerned I am. Louisville may have just hit a run of officials who don’t call many fouls, as their opponents have not gotten many free throws either. Over the last 5 games, Louisville has shot more free throws than their opponents in all but the UNC games. Carlik Jones has 6 games all year with 2 or fewer free throw attempts, and 3 are the last 3 games. He’s still getting into the paint about as often, however, so the free throws will come.
Louisville has had some struggles lately, but it seems to me like their offensive issues are more just a run of bad luck than anything systematic. The defensive issues are more likely to persist, but if the shooting stabilizes like I expect and Louisville gets some officials who are more willing to award free throws they should be able to score enough to stay competitive with about anyone. When you have 2 guards who can score and create offense for others, that papers over a lot of problems, and Louisville certainly has that.
How concerned should UofL fans be?
Louisville's lack of size and bulk was on full display at the beginning of the North Carolina game. The Heels were tossing the ball into the low post and their bigs were having their way with the Cards. Louisville lost of lot of post presence when Steven Enoch ran out of eligibility and Aiden Igiehon has not panned out. That leaves them with an injured Williams and a not-ready-for-primetime Wiznitzer. I don't see a fix this season. The question I have is this: isn't Chris Mack's packline defense suppose to keep the ball out of the pain and contest the shooter from the three point line? I'm not see either of those things happening.