Help is on the way, sort of?
Louisville is rumored to be landing a couple of high-profile transfers. But what should Cards fans expect out of them next season?
It has been a relatively quite last month for the Louisville Cardinals in terms of roster moves, but that seems about to change. Despite several open spots and over 1,600 possible transfers out there, the Cards had landed just Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, high schooler Devin Ree, and had Kamari Lands reaffirm his pledge. The Cards have been linked to a few other transfers, but now the rumor mill is heating up and all signs point to 2 fairly significant names joining the roster imminently.
Both Tyrese Hunter and Emoni Bates bring significant prep credentials with them, and Hunter was decorated with the Freshman of the Year honor in the top basketball conference last season (the Big 12). However, I believe some of the knee-jerk reaction to their potential addition misses the mark in terms of the specific type of impact each will make. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I explain what the data says about what type of player.
Hunter fills a glaring need
Despite El Ellis’ tweets about his positional preference, Louisville needs a more established playmaker at the lead guard spot. Last season Ellis was much more of a scoring threat than a playmaking one, and struggled down the stretch to post more assists than turnovers. Setting aside his personal statistics, it’s generally a good idea to upgrade at every position following a 13-19 season. Hunter is absolutely an upgrade at point guard for Louisville.
Last season Hunter averaged 4.9 assists per game and 3.2 turnovers per game, for an assist:turnover ratio of about 1.5:1. That’s an acceptable figure, and likely to improve as he gets more seasoning. The most impressive part is that he did that in the Big 12 for an NCAA Tournament team. Hunter wasn’t exactly an overlooked recruit either; he was #34 in the class of 2021 RSCI. So, he combines pedigree and production.
However, his production last year was a bit more uneven than you’d imagine based on his “Big 12 Freshman of the Year” credentials. Hunter struggled to create his own offense last season, putting up an effective Fg% of just 44.3% that would have been the worst on Louisville’s team last season. For all his playmaking, he averaged 4.1 turnovers per 40 minutes, which would have been the highest of any Cardinal last season. His most notable positive (other than his solid assist rate) was his steal rate of 3.8%; that’s a very high number and on par with what Russ Smith and Chris Jones were putting up at Louisville almost a decade ago. In fact, Hunter was much more valuable on defense than on offense by just about any measure that tries to evaluate both. BartTorvik.com, EvanMiya.com, and sports-reference.com all have metrics which measure offensive and defensive impact, and Hunter ranks very well in the defensive ones but just so-so on offense.
Opinions are divided somewhat on just how good Hunter is or will be. ESPN ranks him #3 in their rankings of men’s college basketball transfers, and the Athletic ranks him #1. Bart Torvik’s metric-based ranking lists him at just #91 of currently available transfers, however. Evan Miya’s site projects Hunter as #8 among all transfers based on next year’s projected value, but just #30 when using last year’s value. Torvik’s site has a similarity algorithm that generates lists of comparable players based on stats, level of competition, and even size, and Hunter’s comps are very interesting. Most of his comparable players who went on to the NBA are bigger players who were defensive guards with shaky offense (Iman Shumpert, Dejounte Murray). Some other comps of the same size as Hunter became strong college players as they reduced turnovers and developed offensive games; Corey Fisher at Villanova is a good example who became terrific at drawing free throws. Most of the comparable players reduced their turnovers during their career, but very few improved their shooting significantly.
It seems to me that Hunter will be able to step in at the lead guard spot and orchestrate the offense for Louisville, although he will need other Cards to be the main scoring threats. He’ll likely continue to be a questionable shooter, but his defense at the point of attack combined with length and athleticism behind him should lead to a strong defense. It seems unlikely that he’ll become a significant NBA prospect, as small point guards aren’t much in demand even if they are great shooters, so Louisville should be getting a stabilizing piece at point guard for several seasons. If Louisville can put shooting around him, Hunter can be a big improvement over the backcourt alternatives.
Emoni Bates is a name and a lottery ticket
Louisville is favored to land Emoni Bates, and casual fans who follow recruiting probably think the Cards are hitting the jackpot. After all, as a junior in high school he was talked about as a possible #1 draft pick. Not when he was eligible for the draft, mind you, but THAT YEAR. Over Lamelo Ball and Anthony Edwards.
In the 18 months since that article was written, Emoni Bates has continued to be famous but has really struggled on the court. There’s always a possibility that he puts everything together and re-emerges as a star, but at this point I think the odds are against him ever getting drafted in the NBA at all. That’s a bold statement to make that will likely draw some ire, but let me lay out the facts.
First, Bates has played poorly in every competitive setting over the past year. In the 2021 summer circuit, he posted a 38% FG%, 30% 3pt%, with exactly as many turnovers as assists. Then during his one year at Memphis, he put up almost identical shooting numbers with almost twice as many turnovers as assists. He didn’t make a mark on defense in either blocks or steals, and mysteriously left the team for an extended period with a rumored back injury before returning for a few minutes each in Memphis’ 2 NCAA Tournament games.
A highly regarded recruit putting up poor freshman year stats isn’t a death sentence, however. Quentin Grimes was the #8 recruit in his class before a forgettable freshman season at Kansas, transferred to Houston, and made himself into a first round pick of the Knicks. Tre Mann was the #22 recruit in his class but flopped as a freshman at Florida before turning things around as a sophomore and becoming a first round pick as well.
There is one other major red flag with Bates, however. Last season Memphis hosted a Pro Day for NBA scouts where players went through physical testing identical to the NBA draft combine. Bates’ measurements were, in a word, horrific:
Let’s break this down:
His wingspan is almost 2 inches less than his roster height; this is called “negative wingspan” and is incredibly rare in the NBA. Specifically, only 3 small forwards in the last 10 NBA combines had a negative wingspan at all, and only one had a wingspan more than 1 inch less than his height (Svi Mykhailuk)
His vertical jumps (standing and approach) are very poor, especially considering his light weight. Only one player at the last NBA draft combine had a lower vertical jump, and only 3 had lower approach verticals. All 3 of those players were centers and only 1 (Luka Garza) was even drafted.
His 3/4 court spring and agility drill times would have been the worst at the draft combine, and his shuttle time would have been 5th worst. Only 1 player with a worse shuttle time was drafted, and that was a 7’ 250lb center (Neemias Queta)
Over the last 18 months, every piece of evidence we have about Emoni Bates as a basketball player and athlete points to him being average or a little worse as a college player. That’s a far cry from his reputation as an elite scorer when he was younger. He may improve his skills and stats with a fresh start, but the fact that he also is very likely to be just an average athlete for this level means that he has very little margin for error. He also has a very skinny frame that has not filled out in recent years, where his peers have added considerable strength. On top of that, if we take his family at their word he is coming off a debilitating back injury. At this point, adding him to the roster should be seen as a lottery ticket…the potential payoff may be big if he suddenly becomes a fairly efficient scorer, but the odds are much better that he is something considerably less. As long as Louisville’s staff is upfront with him about expectations and he’s willing to take a smaller role if he isn’t performing, things should work out. Bates’ saga reminds me of Renardo Sidney, who was a similarly touted recruit (#7 in his HS class) who dominated as a 6’10” playmaking big man early in his high school career but who failed to develop, landed at Mississippi State, and had 2 somewhat productive years before heading off to various minor professional leagues.
2 freshmen with intriguing potential
The biggest concern I have with the addition of Bates is that he likely is best playing small forward, and Louisville has 2 other skinny wings/forwards who could be in competition with him for minutes. Kamari Lands reaffirmed the commitment he made to the previous staff, and Devin Ree backed out of his LSU commitment to join Louisville. Both players are in the 6’8”-6’9” range and sub-200 pounds, similar to Bates. Stats for high school players are not always reliable, but Ree seems to have been a 45% 3 point shooter at Oak Hill (albeit on low volume) with a 2:1 assist to turnover ratio, and Lands’ stats paint him as a solid scorer and rebounder, although not the perimeter threat or playmaker Ree was. If Bates legitimately earns minutes ahead of them, that’s probably fine…but if he is playing ahead of them based more on reputation than on merit, it could cause chemistry issues and stunt the development of the two freshmen.
I am very interested to see what Ree in particular can do alongside a playmaker and defensive menace like Hunter. If Louisville can add a primary scoring threat, that will allow other players to settle into roles and hopefully become the best version of themselves. Ideally, all of the returnees take on a more reduced role than they had last season and a couple key transfers serve as upgrades while everyone else settles into doing what they can do best. I believe next season’s focus should be on determining which players deserve key rotation spots, and building a style of play that can maximize the strengths of those players. For UofL fans, the focus should be on forgetting last season ever happened and enjoying as the program is built back into something they can be proud of.
Great stuff, specifically regarding Bated