From the portal to the Final Four
Each team in the men's Final Four had at least 1 transfer in their starting lineup. Which of this year's transfers might follow in their footsteps?
In case you hadn’t noticed, transfers are the new hotness in college basketball. Each team in the men’s Final Four had at least 1 transfer in their starting lineup, and it’s no commonplace for the top programs to have at least 1 or 2 transfers in their rotation. SBNation’s Ricky O’Donnell wrote a great article about how Baylor built their roster, and that seems like the template for building a title contender nowadays. The transfers on the Final Four teams fit into some distinct patterns in regards to their situation pre-transfer, and among the nearly 1,200 players who have entered the portal this season there are certainly some analogues. But before I get into that, let’s look at the latest news around the portal:
Total Players in Portal as of 9:00pm Eastern, April 4: 1,194
Total Players Committed to New School: 249
Total Programs With Players in Portal: 346
Programs with most players in portal: Tennessee-Martin (15), Portland (13), Albany/Jacksonville (10); in major conferences, St. John’s (8), DePaul/Minnesota/Penn State/Wake Forest (7)
Programs landing most transfers: South Alabam (6), Duquesne (4)
136 new players have entered the portal between March 30th and April 4th so far, so there’s a lot going on. Who are some of the notable new entrants?
What’s new and interesting in the portal?
Tourney one day, gone the next: Several teams have had shakeups since finishing their postseason. Memphis won the NIT, but has seen 4 players exit the program in the last 5 days. Several NCAA Tournament teams have lost 2 or more players in the last several days, including Texas Tech, Loyola Chicago, Eastern Washington, Rutgers, Oklahoma, and Oregon. Several of these teams have had coaching shakeups recently, but it’s clear that even the success of a postseason NCAA bid isn’t enough to guarantee program stability. Even players who had memorable tourney moments like Joe Pleasant of Abilene Christian or Joseph Yesufu of Drake have decided to transfer.
Among the established scorers or high-major contributors who have entered recently are:
Alfonso Plummer, Utah (6’1” Sr G, 13.2ppg)
DeVante Carter, Norfolk State (6’3” So G, 15.9ppg)
Troymain Crosby, Alcorn State (6’4” Sr G, 19.1ppg)
Christian Bishop, Creighton (6’7” Jr F, 11.2ppg)
Kyler Edwards, Texas Tech (6’4” Jr G, 10.2ppg)
Joseph Yesufu, Drake (6’0” So G, 12.1ppg)
Ty Gordon, Nicholls State (6’1” Sr G, 14.9ppg)
DJ Horne, Illinois State (6’1” So G, 15.1ppg)
Tyler Cochran, Northern Illinois (6’2” So G, 15.5ppg)
Brady Manek, Oklahoma (6’9” Sr F, 10.5ppg)
Toumani Camara, Georgia (6’8” So F, 12.8ppg)
Damian Chong-Qui, Mount St. Mary’s (5’8” Jr G, 14.9ppg)
Davion Buster, Lamar (5’10” Jr G, 15.1ppg)
Jaheam Cornwall, Gardner-Webb (6’0” Sr G, 14.1ppg)
There’s a lot of shooting on that above list, with Plummer, Edwards, Yesufu, Gordon, Horne, Buster, and Cornwall all hitting 35% or more of their threes on high volume. Bishop, Camara, and Manek can all provide some interior presence for a team in need as well.
Moving on up….
As I said in the intro, each of the men’s Final Four teams had at least 1 transfer in their starting lineup. Not all of them were standouts at previous stops, so projecting the future for players currently in the portal isn’t as simple as finding the players who had the most success in their previous stops. Among the notable transfers in the Final Four, we can identify some archetypes and find players currently in the portal who might follow a similar path. Unless otherwise noted, player stats below are from KenPom.com.
Archetype #1: Notable recruit miscast in a leading role
Andrew Nembhard was the #25 recruit in the RSCI for the 2018 class, and committed to Florida. He was an immediate starter for the Gators at point guard, and had some hits and misses. He put up a strong assist rate and steal rate, but was a bit turnover-prone and was only so-so at creating his own offense. He was a good finisher at the rim but settled for a lot of midrange twos, and wasn’t a consistent three point shooter.
Nembhard transferred to Gonzaga and has shone in a more complementary role. He has traded a lot of long twos for threes, and drastically improved his effective FG%. He is a secondary ballhandler now, and reduced his turnovers significantly.
Comp in the portal: Boogie Ellis, Memphis Ellis was the #36 recruit in the 2019 RSCI, and was a starter basically from Day 1 at Memphis. He’s been an above-average usage guy at Memphis but has struggled with efficiency, as he’s a poor midrange shooter. Ellis has posted strong steal rates and hit almost 39% of his threes this season, so he has some skills that could shine if he got the chance to play with a strong lead guard.
Archetype #2: Unheralded recruit who lit up lower level
MaCio Teague wasn’t a hot commodity out of high school, but he had success right away at UNC Asheville. He took an above-average percentage of shots, and was extremely effective from three (43-45%) and the free throw line (87-89%). He had very low turnover rates despite high usage and solid steal rates, which tend to be signs that a player can handle a step up in competition. That’s held true at Baylor, where he’s continued to be a strong three point shooter and low turnover player despite maintaing above-average shot volume.
Comp in the portal: Wendell Green, Eastern Kentucky Green had a few mid-major offers out of high school, and selected Eastern Kentucky. As a freshman he took on a huge offensive role (28% of shots) and hit 36% of his threes, but only 41% of his twos. Green’s size (he’s 5’10”) may limit him at a higher level, as he hit just 44% of his shots at the rim per hoop-math.com, but he assisted on 31% of his teammates shots and had a very strong steal rate. He has enough strengths that he should be able to carve out a role on a very good team.
Archetype #3: Big-time recruit stuck behind older players at high-major program
Two players in this year’s Final Four transferred out of this type of situation: Davion Mitchell (Baylor) and Johnny Juzang (Kentucky). Neither got much time at their first stop (Auburn for Mitchell, Kentucky for Juzang) but blossomed into stars in their next destination. Mitchell played only about 17mpg and had a near-invisible role on Auburn, as he was behind Jared Harper and Bryce Brown (among others). Mitchell didn’t really display much in the way of standout skills, other than finishing 75% of his shots at the rim (per hoop-math.com). However, he was the #58 recruit in 2017 so he had some pedigree. He’s become a playmaking guard, a defensive menace, and even developed a lethal three point shot this season at Baylor.
Juzang has a similar story. He was the #34 recruit in 2019, but played just 11mpg. He was trumpeted as a shooter out of high school but hit just 33% on limited attempts for Kentucky, and didn’t really flash much else. He was stuck behind Immanuel Quickley and Tyrese Maxey on the wing at Kentucky, and decaped for UCLA. He took on the alpha role for UCLA this season, taking almost 30% of the team’s shots when on the court. His outside shooting improved to 35%, and his efficiency has been above average even with the high volume.
Comp in the portal: Kadary Richmond, Syracuse and Nimari Burnett, Texas Tech Both Richmond (#89) and Burnett (#27) were top-100 recruits, but neither played large roles this season. Burnett was quite frankly a disaster on offense, hitting just 37% of his twos and 17% of his threes with a high turnover rate; he left the team after 12 games and 18mpg. Richmond was a bit better, hitting 48% of his twos and 33% of his threes, but was very turnover prone in 20mpg. Both players did flash high rates of collecting steals and drawing free throws, however, which speaks to their athletic potential. I think it’s very likely that both players will be very effective wherever they land next.
Archetype #4: Elite recruit who struggled despite significant role at high-major program
Quentin Grimes was the #8 recruit in the 2018 RSCI, but his freshman year at Kansas did not live up to expectations. He played 25mpg and started every game, but was a very inefficient offensive player. He turned the ball over a ton, and had just a 48% effective FG%. He had a ton of turnover issues, barely drew fouls, and only hit 60% of his free throws when he did get to the line. Upon transferring to Houston, Grimes upped his eFG% to 52% and started getting to the line more often. This season, he’s gotten the turnovers under control and shown he can handle a huge offensive volume (29% of shots) and maintain above-average efficiency. He’s even hitting 40% from deep this season, which may be his ticket to the NBA.
Comp in the portal: Rocket Watts, Michigan State Watts was the #35 recruit in 2019 and was expected to take over as the next standout guard at Michigan State. That didn’t exactly happen. He’s averaged about 20mpg and started about half of his games as a Spartan, but has been wildly inefficient on offense. Like, 43% from two and 27% from three ineffiecient. He’s shown flashes of playmaking chops but struggles to get to the line, and this season he was a nightmare finishing at the rim (31% per hoop-math.com). Watts needs a change of scenery, and hopefully he can unlock his offensive game in a similar way to Grimes. Louisville was a contender for Watts’ services out of high school, and might benefit from giving him a chance.
Archetype #5: Top-100 recruit who goes to mid-major or low-high major program and dominates
DeJon Jarreau was the #55 recruit way back in 2016, but elected to go to UMass. Right away he took on a major role running the show, with a 26% usage rate. He was a rare combination of playmaker (37% assist rate), bucket-getter (56% from two), and even occasional rebounder and shotblocker at 6’5”. It was pretty clear right away that he could succeed at a higher level, and he transferred to an up and coming Houston program. In his three years there, the Cougars have been in the top-15 per KenPom’s ratings, and Jarreau has been a Swiss army knife playmaker and scorer. He hasn’t been tremendously efficienct as a scorer and can be turnover-prone, but he contributes in a lot of ways.
Comp in the portal: Tre Mitchell, UMass Another UMass product, Mitchell was the #86 recruit in the 2019 RSCI but elected to play for the Minutemen. He stepped right in as the alpha scorer, taking over 30% of the shots when on the court. He flashed all-around skills, ranking in the top 500 in eFG%, defensive rebound rate, block rate, and drawing fouls, along with a 34% stroke from three on about 4 attempts per game. He was even 3rd on the team in assist rate this season! Mitchell is likely to continue his career as a multi-dimensional frontcourt player somewhere next season and make a big impact.
To me, the most important takeaway is how many of these players (who are all high impact players on very successful teams) had less than stellar starts to their career. Some outright struggled, some masked inefficiency with volume, but most were not standouts until after transferringIt’s actually pretty common for players to improve their fortunes considerably upon transferring. A new role, a fresh start, or more opportunities can unlock hidden skills. Teams that are willing to take some chances in the portal could find All-America level contributors hiding in plain sight.