A major offseason is underway
With a new coach in place, the attention now turns to building a roster that can compete next season
The Louisville Cardinals men’s basketball program can put the nightmare of last season behind them, as daydreams of new recruits and transfers now occupy the minds of the fanbase. Whispers of new staff members (Milt Wagner? Nolan Smith?) and stay-or-go decisions from roster holdovers seem to pop up every day. Building a roster for next season from the ashes of last season is immediately relevant to re-establishing the Cardinals as a relevant national program, and that work is just beginning.
I would like Cardinal fans reading this newsletter to understand two truths, one negative and one positive. There was very little last season to indicate that any returnees can have a major role in returning Louisville to winning next season. There is also no better time in college basketball to need an immediate roster overhaul than right now, and very few programs bettter positioned to do so that Louisville. In this edition of Hoops Insight I’ll offer my assessment on what Louisville needs roster-wise to turn things around quickly, as well as some transfer portal targets who I believe can help.
Some returning pieces but no sacred cows
As things stand right now, between likely returnees and newcomers, next year’s Louisville roster has:
Guards: El Ellis, Mike James
Forwards: Kamari Lands, Matt Cross, Jae’lyn Withers, JJ Traynor
Bigs: Sydney Curry, Roosevelt Wheeler, Fredrick King
Technically Dre Davis hasn’t departed yet, but when a player’s younger brother decommits we consider that a bad omen. I have no idea if Fredrick King will actually enroll, as nobody seems to know anything about him, and Matt Cross could be a possible departure. Regardless, this seems like a reasonable starting point for next year’s roster.
Of the returnees only Ellis, Withers, and Curry showed anything remarkable during the season. Of course, when the team goes 13-19 nobody did anything remarkable near enough to have mattered. Let’s assume those three are the current favorites to retain a meaningful role. Let’s also assume that James, Lands, and Wheeler at least get an opportunity to take on a meaningful role, and the rest are developmental pieces. Expectations for James, Lands, and Wheeler are unknowable at this point, but Ellis, Withers, and Curry’s performance last year gives us somewhere to start in evaluating roster needs.
Ellis, Withers, and Curry had flashes last year of some individual brilliance on offense. I’m sure the turmoil around the program impacted each of them and kept them from being at their best. However, their play last season needs to improve dramatically if they are to be foundational to next season’s team.
I’ll start with Ellis, who is probably the most useful returning piece. He hit 36% from 3 on 7 attempts per 40 minutes, and posted a respectable 48% effective FG%. Ellis got to the rim more often than any other Cardinal guard last season. He has enough size at 6’3” to play shooting guard. Beyond that, there’s not much else to build around. Ellis finished only 52% of his shots at the rim including just 40% in halfcourt offense, both below average for a guard. He posted 51 assists to 45 turnovers, nowhere near the type of ratio needed for a lead guard in a power conference. He didn’t generate steals, draw fouls, or hit free throws at notable rates. Ellis can be a solid secondary playmaker and has potential to be a solid outside shooter and transition finisher, but he needs to improve significantly to take on more of a role.
Withers had a disappointing season overall, with less than 6 points and 5 rebounds per game on 41% shooting. He did have a run of 5 double figure scoring games in 7 tries late in the season before being benched and getting injured. He did have a promising freshman season, with a 58% effective FG% and solid rebounding, so there have been flashes of competence. The biggest red flag for me is that he’s been a ball stopper throughout his UofL career. He’s only had 4 games with more than 1 assist, and had 3 total assists in the 9 games he played after Mack was fired. Withers also is incredibly turnover-prone, committing 3 for every 1 assist he registers. He hasn’t shown enough as a scorer, and he hasn’t shown he can make plays for others, so it’s going to be an uphill battle for him to be an important piece.
Curry is an interesting evaluation. One the one hand, he hit 67% of his shots last season and averaged 23 points and 14 rebounds per 40 minutes under Pegues. He played 20+ minutes 7 times last season and scored in double figures in 6 of those games, with 2 games of 24 or more. I can understand why a segment of the fanbase thinks he’s the next great big man for Louisville, but there’s more to it than that. First, he was unbelievably turnover- and foul-prone. He committed a turnover every 9 minutes last season under Pegues as he was used more on offense, easily the highest rate on the team in that stretch. He also averaged over 6 fouls per 40 minutes for the season, and 6.7 after Pegues took over. He also struggled defensively, with Synergy rating him in the 15th percentile of all defenders. Opponents hit 69% at the rim in halfcourt offense when he played vs 55% when he sat. Louisville allowed 96 pts/100 possessions when Curry sat last season and 120 when he played. Even as the season was lost they were noticeably worse with him in, giving up 130 pts/100 possessions under Pegues with Curry in and 101 with him out. Curry can put the ball in the basket when he shoots, but he was so destructive in other areas that Louisville was much worse with him in. Curry’s teammates struggled alongside him as well; every returning player had a worse effective FG% alongside Curry than when he sat.
So, I’d say Louisville needs everything they can get in the portal. However, I’d prioritize:
A lead ballhandler who can break down the defense and defend a bit
Multiple guards/wings who can hit threes and offer some playmaking
A defensive big (can be optional if retaining Curry/Wheeler/King)
Interesting names abound
Luckily for Louisville, there are currently over 1,100 players in the transfer portal, and some of them are actually good enough to play in the ACC (probably!). To analyze players in the portal, I like to use Bart Torvik’s Transfer Portal Finder which lets you filter on a wide variety of stat criteria. For the roles I outlined, here are some players I’d consider and why:
Lead ballhandlers
I want to find players who played at least 60% of their team’s minutes with an assist rate of 25% or better, a FG% on close 2s of 55% or better, and who had a steal rate of 2% or higher. All of these stats (except minutes) are an improvement over Ellis’ numbers, and are indicators of a strong playmaker with enough athleticism and defensive instincts to have a shot in the ACC. Most of the players in the portal are transferring up from lower level conferences, so we need to find players who established they were more athletic than that level. Only 8 players currently in the portal meet this criteria, believe it or not! A couple good candidates are:
Tristen Newton, East Carolina (6’5”, Sophomore): Newton averaged 18 points and 5 assists per game last season on 50% eFG%, hitting 33% from 3 and 50% from two. His assist/turnover rate of 1.5:1 isn’t great, but passable. Newton is more of a scorer, but assisted on 34% of his teammates’ baskets last season and would be a nice compliment to Ellis in the backcourt. Newton drew free throws at a high rate and hit 88% to go along with 44% shooting from midrange, so he may have upside as a shooter. He also hit 59% at the rim with a 2.4% steal rate, so he’s got some hope of hanging athletically in the ACC.
Trey Bonham, VMI (6’0”, Sophomore): Bonham scored 13.6 ppg last season and had 4 apg to just 2 turnovers, so he’s a little more of a pure point guard than Newton. Bonham hit 33% from 3, but hit 43% the year prior as a combo guard. Bonham got to the rim more often than Newton and finished 58% of the time there, taking very few shots from midrange; that’s an indicator that he is tiehr explosive enough to get to the rim or smart enough to take good shots, and both are good. He also posted a 2.7% steal rate and is also an 80%+ free throw shooter.
One other name I’ve seen mentioned in Camren Wynter, a 6’2” grad transfer from Drexel. Wynter checkes the box as a playmaker, having put up 25%+ assist rates all 4 years at Drexel. He also is a good scorer at the rim and from midrange, with low turnovers. He did hit just 28% from three this season, but was 42% and 36% the two years before. I’m mostly worried about Wynter’s athleticism, however. He has had low steal rates the past 2 years and low rates of drawing free throws, along with taking more shots from midrange or three than at the rim. That profile is more like a Jarrod West (minus steals) or Fresh Kimble (with less free throws), a point guard who doesn’t quite have the athletic burst to handle PG duties at an ACC level.
Outside shooters
For this I searched for players who hit 35% or higher from three on at least 4 attempts per 40 minutes. I also want players who have some secondary playmaking skill, so I filtered for a 15% assist rate or higher
Nijel Pack, Kansas State (6’0”, Sophomore) Pack moved to a shooting guard role this season to great success, making first team All Big 12 and averaging 17ppg. He has hit 43% over two seasons from deep on a lot of volume, so he’s a proven shooter. He’s also effective at the rim (60% FG%) and from midrange (43%). My main concern is that he gets to the rim very little (<15% of his shots there) and draws few free throws, so Louisville will need other dynamic creators around him to maximize his shooting. Still, he’s the best combo of proven shooting and high-major experience.
Cam Spencer, Loyola (MD) (6’4”, Junior) Spencer is one of my favorite players in the portal so far. He played in the Patriot League, but was clearly too good for the league last season. He scored 19ppg with a 54% eFG% and near 3:1 assist/TO ratio from the wing. He hit 63% at the rim and 47% from midrange, with a 3.6% steal rate. He hit 85% of his free throws, although his FT rate wasn’t great (better than Pack’s, though). At 6’4” he should be able to get his shot off against ACC length, and has shown a lot of scoring craft along with signs of athleticism.
Defensive big
This is an interesting evaluation because Louisville may not need a big at all. With 3 centers plus Withers & Traynor, the staff may just want to develop the players in place. If a spot does open up, I’d like to see the Cards land a big who can rebound and block shots without needing a large role on offense. I looked for players who blocked 6% of shots or more with a 20% defensive rebound rate, and found an interesting sleeper:
Jaylan Gainey, Brown (6’9”, Senior) Gainey played in the Ivy League, but he’s not your typical undersized low-major big. He has posted block rates of 10% or better every year, and collected 23% of available defensive rebounds. He also hit 72% of his shots last season, and didn’t need the ball a ton (15% usage rate). What’s more, he actually had solid games in a couple showdowns against major conference foes. Against UNC, Syracuse, and Maryland he totalled 6 blocks in 55 minutes, hitting 8-12 from the floor. In 2020 he put up 6 points and 2 blocks in 13 minutes vs Duke. He’s not going to be a star big man, but he’d be a nice defensive-minded alternative to Sydney Curry.
I want to be very clear on one point: I have absolutely no idea if any of these players is considering Louisville, or if Louisville is considering them. However, these players fit statistical archetypes that can help fill needs on Louisville’s roster to make them more competitive next season. They aren’t the biggest names, but they can fit well with what the Cards need to rebuild their program back to its lofty standards.