Louisville basketball has been shrouded by two related dark clouds over the past 10 days. First, a loss to Western Kentucky due in some part to the absence of Malik Williams due to COVID protocols, followed in short order by the suspension of team actitivies and postponement of the annual rivalry game due to further spread of COVID. That’s a rough stretch for anyone associated with the program, be they fans, players, coaches, or administrators. As Louisville prepares to continue conference play I don’t know that anybody knows what to expect from this team. In this edition of Hoops Insight, I’ll look briefly at the WKU loss as well as offering some possible sources of optimism for Cards fans as the season hopefully moves forward.
Before I get into that, I wanted to share some exciting news for subscribers. My stats engine now not only allows you to view and analyze data about Louisville, but you can also now download the source PBP data into a formatted .CSV file so you can further analyze the data if you so wish. I’ll also be adding some of Louisville’s ACC opponents in the stats engine so you can check out and download their data ahead of matchups with the Cards. Bookmark it and check back after every Louisville game to understand what happened!
The WKU game was a typical Malik-less performance
There were some rumors in the day or so leading up to the WKU game of COVID issues with Louisville, and the morning of the game the program announced Malik Williams would be out. It’s always tough to predict how a team will react to this kind of absence. Having a player sit out during a game is different than that player missing an entire game, and sometimes the absence of a key player in advance provides some role clarity for backups and they produce in the star’s absence.
That is not what happened for Louisville against Western Kentucky however.
Prior to the WKU game Louisville had struggled in the minutes Williams sits:
In the minutes Williams was in, UofL scored 105.5 pts per 100 possessions and allowed 79.4, with an adjusted margin of +32.2 points/100
In the minutes Williams was out, UofL scored 90.6 pts/100 and allowed 105.4, with an adjusted margin of -9.3 pts/100
The tendency for Louisville on offense without Malik was to score less effectively at the rim, get fewer offensive rebounds, and shoot worse from the perimeter. On defense, Louisville was fine without him as far as getting rebounds, forcing turnovers, and keeping their fouls in check, but they absolutely fell apart in defending the rim and the three point line. Louisville’s defense at the rim with Williams was elite, allowing opponents to hit just 49% of their shots there; that climbs to 74% when Williams sits. Similarly, Louisville would get bombed from deep without Williams, with opponents taking 44% of their shots from deep and hitting 35%, compared to 39% and a 26% FG% with him in. William’s presence on defense is invaluable for this Cardinals team, as he can switch credibly and avoid giving daylight to shooters. Interestingly enough Williams is not much of a shotblocker, blocking just 3.1% of opponent shots when something like 7%+ is a strong rate. But Williams just doesn’t allow opponents to score off of pick and roll, and he holds up extremely well in isolations.
The Western Kentucky game looked very similar to Louisville’s season long stats without Malik. Louisville’s offense actually held up pretty well, scoring 101.4 pts/100 (up from a season avg of 99.1) with solid 3 point shooting and low turnovers. Louisville got out in transition a lot (22 of 63 FGA there) and hit 7 of 14 threes in transition, previously a problem area. But the Cards could not get to the rim in halfcourt offense (only 8 shots there out of 41 total halfcourt shots). They were bailed out somewhat by hitting 6 of 11 midrange shots, but it just wasn’t enough thanks to leaky defense.
For the first time all season Louisville clearly lost because of poor defense, and it’s no coincidence that it came when Williams was out. The Cardinals allowed 115.5 pts per 100 possessions, with no other game all season above 104. UofL did a nice job on the defensive boards, grabbing 81% of Hilltopper misses, and forced turnovers on 20% of WKU possessions. Where Louisville got shredded was in halfcourt offense and giving up a ton of FTs.
As has been their tendency all season without Malik, Louisville couldn’t guard the rim at all. Going up against a 7’5” center isn’t what you want to do without your own center, but Louisville allowed WKU to hit 75% of their shots at the rim in halfcourt. Louisville’s guards and wings actually did an OK job on defense, as they only allowed WKU to take 25% of their halfcourt shots at the rim, but they gave up a ton of three point looks at the Toppers made 46% in halfcourt offense. Giving up 31 FTAs is a huge problem as well given that Louisville doesn’t have enough dynamic creators on offense to draw free throws themselves. Sometimes referees just have a quick whistle and Louisville will always suffer more from that given their lack of drawing FTs, but they can’t have situations like Dre Davis committing 3 fouls in 7 minutes or Mason Faulkner committing 4 in 23. Without their defensive anchor Louisville just wasn’t able to play the way they wanted.
Louisville has an ELITE defense thanks to two players
Make no mistake about it, Louisville is a terrific defensive team. Even after the WKU debacle the Cards rank 20th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings. The main issue is that UofL’s defense really revolves around 2 key players: Jarrod West and Malik Williams.
Per Synergy, West and Williams both rate as Excellent on defense due to the low rate of opponent’s scoring when they are the primary defender. This season Noah Locke also rates as excellent. Dre Davis and Jae’lyn Withers also rate very well by other advanced defensive stats (see BartTorvik.com’s BPM, EvanMiya.com’s defenisve ratings, or Sports Reference’s Defensive BPM), although that may be due to the fact that they play a large percentage of minutes with either or both of West and Williams.
When UofL has West and Williams on the court they allow a very nice 69.0 points per 100 possessions. LSU' is leading the nation allowing 76 per 100, and no other team is below 80, so UofL is one of the best defensive teams in the nation with their ace duo on the court. But if you remove even one of them, the defense falls apart:
Lineups with West but no Williams allow 99.0 pts/100 poss
Lineups with Williams but no West allow 109.6 pts/100
Lineups with neither allow 125.8 pts/100
Here’s a shocking stat: Louisville has not been outscored in any game this season during the minutes where West and Williams shared the court…not one! Meanwhile, it’s been over a month since UofL outscored a team during minutes where Malik sat (Nov 25 vs Miss St). Game after game Louisville is building advantages when West and Williams are out there spearheading the defense, and then giving some back (and sometimes all) when either or both of them rests.
There’s not an easy fix for this, but I think Louisville is headed in the right direction with some rotation decisions. First, they should absolutely use Withers as the backup center. It’s disappointing to have 3 other centers besides Malik on the roster and not have any of them be dependable, but that’s the situation. But Louisville can piece together a promising offense with the Williamson/Withers pair at the 4 and the 5. In 31 possessions that duo has played without a center, Louisville is +12 and is scoring 148.4 points per 100 possessions., miles ahead of their normal rate. That gives Louisville a chance of outscoring opponents when Williams needs a breather.
Second, when Louisville needs to give Jarrod West a breather they can try to inject some dynamisn with the Ellis/Faulkner backcourt. However, this duo needs some help in being effective. Namely, they need shooting around them to space the floor and create driving lanes. I’d consider Louisville to have a few players who are willing and reasonably capable shooters: Locke, Cross, Withers, Williams, and probably Williamson. The first 2 are indisputable, the next 2 at least are threats to shoot from the outside and draw the defense somewhat, and Williamson can create from15-18 feet off the dribble at a high rate. When Ellis and Faulknerplay with any 3 of these players, Louisville can score at a high rate by getting to the rim. These lineups are hitting 76% of their shots at the rim and getting about 30% of their shots there, even in halfcourt offense. Getting rid of post-ups and spreading the floor can work with these backup ballhandlers and is a nice change of pace when Louisville has to rest Jarrod West.
Louisville needs to really lean on West and Williams leading the defense if they are going to contend for an NCAA tournament berth and an upper tier ACC finish. The defense can be elite, and Louisville needs to be very careful about how they manage the game when either West or Williams is sitting out. They can’t keep losing those minutes and squander the advantage they get from their defense. Louisville can absolutely turn this season around and become a real ACC contender, but the margin for error is small. Let’s hope for no more COVID pauses, no injuries, and that we get a huge helping of defensive brilliance from the Cards in the New Year.