How will UofL's freshmen improve as sophomores?
Louisville has only 3 players returning in 2020-21 who played meaningful roles on the 2019-20 team: David Johnson, Samuel Williamson, and Malik Williams. With all due respect to Williams, the players who likely have the most room to grow are Johnson and Williamson. The great Ken Pomeroy wrote an article for The Athletic showing how players improve the most going into their sophomore and junior years, and both Johnson and Williamson will be sophomores. Additionally, both players are expected to see larger roles next season than they had in 2019-20. So, fans should expect to see improvement...but what type of improvement?
In an attempt to answer this, I looked at some similar players who played under Chris Mack at Xavier and noted how they improved between their freshman and sophomore years. What I found points to some areas of likely improvement, and other areas where improvement probably won't happen. Without further ado, let's start with David Johnson:
David Johnson
In his freshman season, Johnson was a ball-dominant big guard who excelled at creating via pass. His statistical profile was:
High usage (28%, took 23% of shots)
Good 2 point shooter (55%) but poor/reluctant 3 point shooter (22% on <1 per game)
Strong passer (35% assist rate) but turnover prone (25% turnover rate); both were team high
Foul prone (4.3 fouls per 40 min, 2nd highest on team) (all above stats per KenPom.com)
Strong/frequent finisher at rim (59% FG%, 54% of shots, both highest of UofL Gs) (per hoop-math.com)
Most dangerous in transition (79th percentile per Synergy, 24th in half court)
I was able to find 2 similar players from Xavier who were ball-dominant guards with size who also created well via pass as freshmen: Semaj Christon (who played under Mack in 2012-13 and 2013-14) and Edmond Sumner (2015-16 and 2016-17).
As a freshman, Christon:
Was a ball dominant creator who was turnover-prone (30% usage, 32% assist rate, 22% turnover rate)
Was an average 2 point shooter (46%) and poor/reluctant outside shooter (25% on <1 per game)
Was more dangerous as a passer than scorer in the halfcourt (45th percentile as scorer, 75th including passing)
In his sophomore year, Christon:
Saw his usage rate, assist rate, and turnover rate decline due to the emergence of other ballhandlers (27% usage, 25% assist rate, 17% turnover rate)
Improved his 2 point shooting to 49% by taking more shots at the rim and finishing better
Improved his 3 point shooting to 39% on 1.5 per game
Rated in the 56th percentile in halfcourt scoring and 76th including passing
Fouled less, and drew fouls more often
As a freshman, Sumner:
Was an active creator who was turnover prone (24% usage, 25% assist rate, 19% turnover rate)
Was a below average 2 point shooter (44%) and below average 3 point shooter (30% on 3 per game)
Was a poor finisher at the rim (50%)
Was more dangerous as a passer than scorer in the halfcourt (43rd percentile as scorer, 82nd including passing)
In his sophomore year, Sumner:
Maintained his usage, increased his creation, and held turnovers roughly flat (25% usage, 30% assist rate, 20% turnover rate)
Shot much better on 2's (53%) due to better finishing at the rim (60%)
Shot worse on 3 pointers (27% on 2 per game)
Improved as halfcourt scorer and passer (59th percentile as scorer, 93rd including passing)
Fouled less often
Based on these examples, we can reasonably expect improvement from David Johnson in a few areas:
Taking more shots at rim, and finishing better (especially in halfcourt)
Fouling less often
Drawing more fouls
We probably won't see:
Change in offensive role/usage
Reduction in turnovers
Significant improvement in outside shooting
Just for fun, I used the Play Index at College Basketball Reference to look for similar players (link) and got: Evan Turner's junior year at Ohio State, Elfrid Payton's junior year at Louisiana,and Darius Morris' sophomore year at Michigan. For what it's worth, all 3 of these players were drafted by the NBA following these years, with Turner and Payton being lottery picks.
Samuel Williamson
In his freshman year, Samuel Williamson was an opportunistic scorer who didn't create much for others. His statistical profile was:
Below-average usage (18%, took 17% of shots)
Reluctant passer but turnover prone (7% assist rate, 25% turnover rate)
Solid 2 point shooter (51%) and reluctant but acceptable 3 point shooter (33% on 1 per game)
Good finisher at rim (65% FG%) and in midrange (41% FG%) who didn't get to the rim much (32% of shots)
Miscast as a spot-up shooter (17th percentile per Synergy; 29% FG% on spot ups)
Foul prone (4 per 40 min)
I found 2 players from Xavier who were turnover-prone guards/wings: Quentin Goodin (2016-17 and 2017-18) and JP Macura (2014-15 through 2017-18)
As a freshman, Goodin:
Had below-average usage (18%) but high assist and turnover rates (25% assist rate, 27% turnover rate)
Shot poorly on 2's (38%) and 3's (26% on 1.5 per game)
Was a poor finisher at the rim (43%)
Was poor as a spot up shooter (23rd percentile, 29% FG%)
In his sophomore year, Goodin:
Maintained below-average usage (18%) with high assist and turnver rates (26% assist rate, 23% turnover rate)
Improved 2 point shooting (50%) due to improving at rim (59%)
Maintained poor 3 point shooting (30% on 2 per game)
Improved spot-up shooting (69th percentile on 41% FG%)
Fouled less often
As a freshman, Macura:
Had above average usage (22%) with low assist rate (10%) and high turnover rate (20%)
Shot well on 2 pointers (55%) and above average from 3 on high volume (34% on 3 per game, more 3's than 2's)
Finished well at the rim (63%) but never got there (20% of shots)
Was above average as a spot up shooter (70th percentile)
Was foul prone (4.3 per 40 min)
In his sophomore year, Macura:
Reduced his usage rate (19%), increased his assist rate (16%) and reduced his turnover rate (14%)
Maintained good shooting from 2 (56%) and 3 (36% on 3 per game)
Maintained at-rim finishing (62%) and got there more often (35% of shots)
Became an elite spot up shooter (92nd percentile)
Stayed foul prone
Whereas Johnson's comparable players both turned pro after their sophomore years, Williamson's both stayed 4 years (although Goodin only played 2 years under Mack). Both did have their most effective offensive years as sophomores, however. Based on these examples, we can expect Williamson will probably improve in a few areas:
Improving 2-point weaknesses (spot-up shooting at finishing at the rim more)
Increasing his assist rate as he becomes more of a creator
Fouling less
We probably won't see:
Significant increase in usage
Improved outside shooting
Significant turnover reduction
Again, I used the Play Index at College Basketball Reference to find similar players (link). Among the comparables for my project sophomore Samuel Williamson are freshman year TJ Warren at NC State and junior year Normal Powell from UCLA. Both were wings who shot many more 2's than 3's and didn't bring much from a rebounding or playmaking perspective, but were effective volume scorers. Both eventually made the NBA, but needed an additional year in college. I would expect Williamson to blossom into a low double digit scorer, but to need at least one more year at Louisville to grow his game into serious NBA consideration.
Takeaways
The history of similar players under Chris Mack indicates that both David Johnson and Samuel Williamson can show real growth next season for Louisville. Some of their offensive weaknesses are areas where Mack has shown the ability to develop players in the past, although some weaknesses are likely to remain. Based on prior comps, I'd expect David Johnson to become a legitimate NBA Draft prospect next season, while Samuel Williamson will likely need at least another year before showing the same promise.
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